European Nation Need to Lose Final Group Game To Improve World Cup Qualification Chance

Typically, for obvious reasons, nations go into World Cup qualifying matches with every intention of winning as comfortably as possible. But as we edge closer to next summer’s showpiece competition in North America, there’s a European nation that would actually be better off losing their final match in order to improve their, albeit very slim, chances of booking a spot at the tournament.

Argentina, managed by Lionel Scaloni, will be making the trip as a means of retaining their status as champions of international football – but there will be a smattering of nations looking to upset the apple cart: that includes England, Spain, France and Brazil. It’s all to play for, and the excitement is already rising to see who will reign supreme.

The likes of Iran, Egypt, New Zealand, Ghana, Ecuador and Paraguay (to name a few) have already sealed their flight to North America; but there could be a heartwarming story bubbling in the background. One European nation, who have never been to the World Cup finals, have the chance to book their spot, but it comes at the expense of losing their next match.

European Nation Required to Lose Group Game to Boost World Cup Chances

As one of the smallest nations in international football, there is very little expected of San Marino, which is a landlocked country in Southern Europe. They’ve recorded eight straight losses since the latter stages of last year and, in that time, have hit the back of the net just twice: against Romania in a 5-1 loss and against Malta in a 3-1 defeat. Despite all of that, there is a chance of reaching next summer’s tournament.

As things stand, San Marino – who last won a match in November 2024, which was their first victory in competitive football, as they beat Liechtenstein 3-1 in their Nations League campaign – are currently sat at the bottom of Group H with seven losses from seven. In that time, they’ve scored just one goal and conceded a whopping 32.

Managed by Roberto Cevoli, San Marino may be the lowest-ranked side in FIFA’s rankings, but losing to Romania in their final qualifier could actually lead to the unthinkable.

Romania, currently, are third in the group and three points behind second-placed Bosnia and Herzegovina – and there is just one game left to play. Austria, at the time of writing, are at the summit of Group L and, thus, likely to qualify automatically.

Per FIFA’s regulations, the second-placed nation in the group will go through to the play-offs against other second-place finishers from other groups alongside, crucially, the four-highest ranked group winners from the Nations League. San Marino won their group and, as a result, are the 14th-highest ranked group winner in that regard.

That said, the Nations League group winners that manage to qualify for the 2026 World Cup or the play-offs via their World Cup qualification groups do not take up one of the four aforementioned spots reserved for Nations League group winners. For context: Romania are Nations League winners and Bosnia are not.

As a result, it would be more useful for San Marino World Cup prospects if Romania leapfrog Bosnia in Group L, so the latter do not take up one of the four Nations League spots ahead of them. San Marino’s facing defeat in their final group match against Romania would boost their chances, but they would also be relying on at least eight of the other 12 Nations League group winners to finish in the top two of their respective World Cup qualification groups.