Betting Odds Movement Suggests Chargers Could Replace Herbert in NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is all about teams changing their fortunes, and fortune favors the bold.

The Los Angeles Chargers pulling off a blockbuster trade involving quarterback Justin Herbert in order to select a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft would be about as bold as it gets.

Based on recent odds movement, sportsbooks think there’s a chance it might actually happen.

On ESPNBet, the Chargers opened at +10000 odds (100-1) to use their first draft pick in the 2024 draft on a quarterback, and those odds moved to +1500 (15-1) two days ahead of the draft.

Now, just one day before the draft kicks off, the odds have moved once again to +600 (6-1) with the Chargers currently slated to make their first selection at No. 5 overall, barring any potential trades.

Herbert is one of the NFL’s highest-paid players of all time after he signed a five-year, $262.5 million contract extension with $218.7 million in guaranteed money in July 2023 and is widely regarded as a “franchise quarterback.”

So, what’s behind all the buzz behind one of the NFL’s great young players possibly being on the move?

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With three QBs and a generational WR set to go in the top-four selections, the Chargers hold all the cards at No. 5.

The Reason Behind the Shift in Odds

Chargers would be wise to target one of the top QB prospects, including Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy

It’s easy to point to first-year Chargers’ head coach Jim Harbaugh and his affinity for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy as the biggest reason why the Chargers might make a move to trade Herbert. Harbaugh came out at the NFL owners meetings in March and said McCarthy was the best quarterback available in the draft.

Harbaugh and McCarthy, of course, teamed up to go 15-0 and win the College Football Playoff National Championship at Michigan in 2023. McCarthy’s stock has risen leading up to the draft, where several mock drafts have teams trading up to select him in the top five picks.

That’s also Harbaugh putting McCarthy ahead of presumed No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and North Carolina’s Drake Maye, who are widely assumed to be the players the Washington Commanders are trying to decide between with the No. 2 overall pick (via ESPN:)

The bigger reason a trade might happen would be Herbert, who has received more credit for his potential than his production over his first four NFL seasons.

Since being drafted at No. 6 overall out of Oregon in 2020, Herbert is 30-32 as the starting quarterback for the Chargers and was on the losing end of one of the worst collapses in NFL playoff history — the only postseason game of his career — when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead on the way to a 31-30 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card Round following the 2022 season.

In 2023, the Chargers went 5-8 with Herbert as the starter, and he missed the last four games of the regular season due to season-ending finger surgery.

The most likely trade scenario would probably involve the Commanders at No. 2 overall — a deal in which the Commanders get Herbert and the Chargers get to select McCarthy and land several more draft picks, something The Ringer’s Bill Simmons proposed on The Bill Simmons Podcast on April 23 (via The Ringer:)

All stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise. All salary info via Spotrac.

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