Why It’s Time To Finally Fade Christian McCaffrey

After his career is over,

Christian McCaffrey

might go down as one of the greatest

NFL Fantasy Football

players in history. But 2024 is the year when you can begin to fade him in your drafts. It’s hard to pass on a player who has had as much fantasy success as McCaffrey, but several factors could prevent him from continuing with his production at the rate he has.

From Carolina to San Francisco, McCaffrey has been everything you could ask for in a star fantasy running back. With four top-three fantasy finishes throughout his seven-year career, it’s easy to understand why his ADP has remained so high, even through his injury-ridden seasons at the end with the

Carolina Panthers

.

In fantasy football, the goal is to draft for the future, not for the past. It’s great to acknowledge McCaffrey’s success, but fantasy managers should be thinking about the production they should expect in the upcoming season.

McCaffrey could still be a good fantasy pick this year, but he might not be worth being drafted as the first overall pick in fantasy drafts.

McCaffrey’s Calf Injury Holding Him Out Of Preseason

McCaffrey’s injury history indicates his calf issue could become a long-term problelm

Christian McCaffrey has been dealing with a calf strain during the preseason, which will hold him out until the regular season. While it’s been holding McCaffrey out, he doesn’t feel that it would hold him out of a regular season game today:

But the reality is that McCaffrey has a lengthy injury history. He’s been much more durable in San Francisco, but he missed 23 games in his last two seasons with the Panthers. McCaffrey still battled through some injuries within the last year, so he’s clearly prone to injuries, though his willingness to play through them increased with the 49ers.

Not only has McCaffrey had his fair share of injuries, but he’s had several similar injuries, like the Pedal Ankle Sprain and now his Leg Calf Strain. What might seem minor could become an issue as the regular season begins.

Father Time Is Catching Up

Running backs begin to regress at 27 years old, and McCaffrey is 28

It might feel like a lazy excuse, but running backs at the age of 27 have historically begun to decline. Joe Schoen spoke about this at the NFL Combine, which may have contributed to Saquon Barkley’s departure.

Clearly, these statistics haven’t applied to McCaffrey yet, as he finished with the second-most scrimmage yards of his career in 2023 with 2,023. McCaffrey’s usage was also highly increased, whereas

Kyle Shanahan

may look to reduce his workload in 2024.

The data doesn’t perfectly capture the decline when running backs decline, but some data points hint that between the ages of 27-29 could be when running backs are less productive.

So far, McCaffrey has defeated Father Time, but that may only carry on for so long.

New Offensive Philosophy

Reports of the 49ers potentially passing more in 2024 could hurt McCaffrey’s fantasy value

The thought of the 49ers wanting to throw the ball more in 2024 is music to fantasy managers’ ears, but it shouldn’t be for McCaffrey owners. In 2023, McCaffrey had the second-most receiving yards, third-most receptions, and fourth-most targets among running backs. It would be a stretch to think that even if the 49ers wanted to throw the ball more next season, McCaffrey’s workload could increase even further.

Besides the fact that McCaffrey’s usage probably won’t increase any further, the 49ers have plenty of other talent. Between

Brandon Aiyuk

,

Deebo Samuel Sr.

,

George Kittle

, and newly drafted Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco has a plethora of other players that are being underutilized.

Unfortunately for fantasy football managers, it might need to take a shift in philosophy on offense to finally win a championship. Instead of overusing McCaffrey during the regular season, especially at his age,

Kyle Shanahan

could lessen his workload to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

All stats are courtesy of Fantasy Pros and Pro Football Reference.