Why 2024 Will Be Mike Tomlin’s First Losing Season

Walk by the Pittsburgh Steelers locker room at Acrisure Stadium, and you’ll see a glistening silver sign engraved on the beautifully painted black wall. It reads:

The Standard … Is the Standard.

It’s the mantra of head coach Mike Tomlin. It’s a bit of an esoteric statement that Tomlin explained in his own words during a press conference in 2020:

Winning is Mike Tomlin’s business and business has been very, very good. Since taking over as Pittsburgh’s head coach in 2007, his team has never had a losing record.

That’s 17 straight NFL seasons without a single sub-.500 finish, the longest streak ever to start a career and the second-longest stretch for any coach ever behind Bill Belichick’s 19 straight and Tom Landry’s 21 consecutive non-losing seasons.

Let’s face it, some of those seasons the Steelers probably should not have even been sniffing playoff contention. Tomlin has held that thing together with enough duct tape and Bondo to keep the Titanic afloat. He deserves immense credit for curating consistent excellence. It has been an incredible run.

This is the year it ends.

2024 will finally be the one where Tomlin’s brilliance is not enough to keep Pittsburgh’s season from sinking into the three rivers. There are simply too many obstacles, too many question marks, too many holes that have not been filled for them to be legitimate playoff contenders.

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Pittsburgh’s QB Room Will Be Tomlin’s Undoing.

The Steelers have a vicious schedule and major question marks at the game’s most important position.

The biggest issue is, as it has been since Ben Roethlisberger retired, is the offense.

Give Tomlin credit for hiring former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith to replace the underwhelming Matt Canada as offensive coordinator. Tomlin hasn’t had a truly capable OC in place since Bruce Arians left after the 2011 season. When he has a capable quarterback to work with, Smith has a history of putting a potent offense on the field.

Which brings us to whether or not the Steelers have a capable QB.

They’re banking on Russell Wilson to revert to his Pro Bowl form, a major gamble given the fact he only got marginally better with offensive mastermind Sean Payton running the offense in Denver.

If Wilson is washed up, they have Justin Fields as the backup. Fields is as athletically gifted as any QB in the game but could never make it work in Chicago, where he simply could not figure out how to overcome his shaky ball placement and decision-making ability.

Can Tomlin’s bread and butter save Pittsburgh again?

Even if they did stumble onto a solution under center there are questions about … well, the center and the other four guys on the offensive line. The unit has been underwhelming for a while now. The Steelers spent their first two picks in this year’s draft on offensive linemen, which is smart. But both Troy Fauntano and Zach Frazier are already penciled in as starters at left tackle and center, the two most important positions on the o-line.

Defensively, this club is going to be rock solid again. T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick are stars, Cameron Heyward seems to age slower than Paul Rudd and Joey Porter Jr. has the look of a Pro Bowl corner in the making.

This is the group that has saved game after game for the Steelers.

It will win them a couple more this year, but not enough to pull them above the .500 mark.

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A Brutal Division, With a Tough Stretch to End The Season

Pittsburgh faces one of the NFL’s most difficult schedules in 2024.

The final factor, Pittsburgh’s schedule, might be the most daunting of them all.

The early season is not terribly difficult with just two of their first nine games against teams that had winning records a year ago.

We also can’t forget that the Steelers happen to be in one of, if not, the toughest division in the NFL. The AFC North sent three teams to the playoffs last January, with Pittsburgh sneaking in at 10-7 as the seventh seed.

While the Steelers have the third-toughest schedule in the NFL this season, they can take solace in the fact that the Browns and Ravens have it a little tougher.

Their last eight games are a nightmare.

They play six playoff teams from last year who figure to be in the postseason hunt again:two against the Baltimore Ravens, two against the Cleveland Browns, a trip to Philadelphia to face the Eagles and the joy of welcoming Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to the Steel City.

The other two outings are against the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow, which is never an easy task (assuming the franchise quarterback can stay healthy that long, of course). Even going 3-5 in that stretch would be a minor miracle.

The good folks in Canton, OH can start making Tomin’s Hall of Fame bust right now. In his induction introduction, they can write he had 17 straight winning seasons because 18 simply is not in the cards.

All stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference, unless stated otherwise.

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