USMNT vs. Mexico Prediction, Betting Picks and Analysis for Gold Cup final

After some quarterfinal shocks at the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup, chalk returned in the semis, meaning we’ll see the United States Soccer men’s national team and Mexico Football on Sunday evening in Houston, Texas, in their eighth all-time meeting in the Gold Cup final.

Both teams posted a 4W-1D-0L record to get here, with each drawing Costa Rica Football. Mexico played to a 0-0 tie to close their group campaign. The USA tied the Ticos 2-2 in their quarterfinal before advancing on penalties.

Mexico is looking for its 10th Gold Cup title and the USA seeks its eighth. Mexico lifted the trophy in five of the previous seven finals played between them.

Here’s everything you need to know before betting on Sunday night’s enormous game.

USMNT vs. Mexico Betting Odds

El Tri a slight favorite on American soil

Although the USMNT is playing on home soil, Mexico have been installed as favorites. That might seem odd to casual fans, but the more you dig, the more it checks out.

First off, Mexico has more or less its best XI available for this match, while the Americans are playing without a host of stars who would feature were this a World Cup or World Cup qualifying fixture.

Secondly, the U.S. will be the home team in name only. Houston’s Mexican-American population is enormous, and the atmosphere at NRG Stadium is expected to be pointedly in favor of El Tri.

Finally, if you have watched both teams in this tournament, it’s been fairly clear that Mexico has played better, particularly on the defensive end. After a surprisingly open 3-2 win against the Dominican Republic to begin the tournament, they’ve kept four consecutive clean sheets.

USMNT Betting Analysis

A defense that’s hard to trust

In terms of who isn’t at this tournament for the USA, most of the attention has focused on attackers like Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi. But where this team has struggled most relative to expectations has been on the defensive end.

Pochettino’s rearguard has now conceded on three consecutive occasions, and in the knockout phase at least you’d have to say those goals reflected the balance of play. Heavy underdogs Guatemala somehow unleashed 20 shots in total and created two big chances against the Americans, after scoring only twice total in three matches against Panama, Canada Football and Jamaica. (One goal came when Canada was down a man!)

Particularly, Columbus Crew SC fullback Max Arfsten has had some costly moments, though Pochettino stuck with him against Guatelama after a pair of gaffes and a penalty conceded against Costa Rica. But even if Pochettino made a chance now, they’d still be a significant downgrade from Sergino Dest and Antonee Robinson, the top choices (when available) at the respective right- and left-back spots.

Mexico Betting Analysis

Dominance, but not always dangerous

There are two things that stand out looking at Mexico’s expected goals (xG) totals over this tournament (via FotMob).

The first is how few quality chances they’ve conceded to opponent. The most total xG they’ve conceded is 0.74 to the Dominican Republic. No other opponent has generated so much as 0.5 xG in the remaining four games, with Saudi Arabia managing an embarassing 0.02 xG over 90 minutes of Mexico’s 2-0 quarterfinal win.

The second is a lack of high levels of dangerous chances created themselves, despite superiority in shots and possession. El Tri have not created so much as 1.5 xG in any match so far.

Perhaps some of this is a feature of the unusual dynamics of this tournament, in which opponents have been so inferior in terms of quality that there isn’t a lot of reason for Mexico to take risks once it grabs a lead. They’ve mostly been able to kill off games simply by keeping the ball against opponents who can rarely win it back, let alone mount a serious threat when they do.

With Fulham‘s Raul Jimenez back in vintage form, Aguirre has elected to use AC Milan‘s Santiago Gimenez as a substitute in the last four matches. He’s still looking for his first goal in the competition, though he had an assist in the match he started against the Dominican.

USMNT vs. Mexico Betting Prediction and Pick

Not your typical low-scoring final dynamic

Oddsmakers are leaning toward fewer goals in this match given recent low-scoring history between these sides. That may be an error.

Every previous competitive match between the USA and Mexico between 2019 and 2023 except for one featured Gregg Berhalter on the U.S. touchline. For all the controversy over Berhalter’s tenure with the USMNT, his era pretty much mirrored historical USMNT averages, with one exception: scoring both for the USA and their opponents was less frequent.

Pochettino’s American side is clearly more transition-oriented and somewhat more open. And that’s likely to create more opportunities for Mexico than they’ve seen so far in a competition where opponents have parked the bus.

Further, four of the previous seven Concacaf Gold Cup final meetings between these sides have gone over 2.5 goals, and four of five without Berhalter coaching. For whatever reason, this occasion toward higher scoring than when these sides meet in World Cup qualifying.

Back that trend here. Take the over at +140 odds and an implied41.7% probability.

• USMNT vs. Mexico betting pick: Total over 2.5 goals (+140, Bet365)

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