Ilia Topuria to Lose UFC Comeback, UFC Analyst Says

Ilia Topuria’s personal issues could creep into his professional career if he returns to the Octagon too soon, and so a renowned UFC analyst is advising the UFC lightweight champion to take his time and only come back to mixed martial arts when he’s truly ready for a fight.

One of the most captivating champions in all combat sports, Topuria hasn’t fought since June 28, 2025, when he KO’d Charles Oliveira at UFC 317. He announced a hiatus from competition through at least early 2026 to focus on “a difficult moment in my personal life” — likely his public divorce — and is not expected to return until the summer, at the earliest.

Matt Brown, himself a well-known former fighter-turned analyst, offered to MMA Fighting the advice he’d give Topuria about returning to sport too soon.

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Ilia Topuria Could Lose UFC Comeback

Ilia Topuria

Topuria joined the UFC in 2020 after lighting up regional firms like Cage Warriors and Brave CF and, though the level of competition increased, so too did his win-rate as Topuria preserved his unbeaten run while thrashing the likes of Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Oliveira.

He fought only once last year, though, and it is unclear if he’ll even compete in 2026 — let alone how many times.

Brown advised against returning too soon:

“The bolder prediction is that he loses … he comes back too soon, still dealing with all this bull-s*** and ends up losing because he’s not in the right headspace.”

It may be pertinent advice, Brown said, as fighters “don’t like sitting on the sidelines,” he said.

But, Brown added, Topuria is “dealing with some pretty heavy s*** … it can weight heavy on you. There’s deaths in the family. Divorces, custody stuff, kid stuff, kids get sick, the list goes on and on forever and ever. But when you go in there, and you’re going against hungry, young lions, you better have your head on straight.”

Brown said his divorce lasted two years, noting: “Just because a divorce is finalized, things aren’t all of a sudden roses and rainbows and good again … it’s not like everything gets better. There’s not a timeline. There’s not a proper way to do it. At some point, you’ve just got to suck it up and do it.”

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Ultimately, Brown believes that, providing Topuria doesn’t rush back, he could be a champion for a long time, regardless of who he fights next, out of the upcoming interim title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.

“He’s so talented I don’t really see him losing to Gaethje or Paddy. But if you’re not trained properly, your head’s not proper, anything can happen. Those guys are no slouches either. I’m not taking anything away from them. Ilia’s that good.”

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