Fantasy Football 2024: Post-Hype Sleepers

Every year, fantasy football managers get hyped about players that ultimately flatter to deceive. Whether it be because of injury, poor form or falling down the depth chart, several players always badly underperform their ADPs, leading to managers discarding them the next year.

These players can often be had for cheap in drafts the year after and can be absolute bargains. Most managers undervalue them because they regret drafting them previously, and as a result, they’re ‘slept on’ by most other players.

We’ll have a look at some of these ‘post-hype sleepers’, and why you should be picking them up in your drafts.

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6

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots, ADP 59

Stevenson is one of the few workhorse backs left in the league

5

Rhamondre Stevenson

was unexpectedly excellent in 2022, finishing as RB7 in the PPR format despite only starting seven games. Naturally, ahead of the 2023 fantasy draft, he was highly valued and had an ADP of around 30.

He repaid that investment by finishing the 2023 season as RB35 in PPR, behind Tyjae Spears and above the likes of Tyler Allgeier and Alexander Mattison.

It all went wrong for Stevenson, who had to contend with Ezekiel Elliott vulturing away touches and a poor run-blocking offensive line. His scrimmage yards per game dropped from 86 yards per game to 71.4, and he missed the last five games of the season with an ankle injury. To make matters worse, the putrid New England Patriots offense had the fewest points in the NFL, and he was only able to rack up four touchdowns.

Despite all this, Stevenson was still able to average 12.1 points per game, and several of the factors that held him back won’t be relevant in 2024. Elliott has returned to the Cowboys, and Stevenson won’t face much competition for touches. Moreover, the Patriots have ensured competence at the quarterback position by signing veteran Jacoby Brissett.

While the offense won’t be explosive, or likely even above average, they should be able to generate more red zone touches for Stevenson than last year.

There are still reasons to be concerned about Stevenson. The offensive line is still shaky at best, and the Patriots are likely going to be trailing in most games and will need to pass more. Backup running back Antonio Gibson is a better pass catcher and will feature more on passing downs.

Regardless, Stevenson is still a worthy investment at his draft point. He’s one of the few workhorse backs left, and if Drake Maye ever has to start, will be relied on heavily while the rookie gets his bearings.

4

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars, ADP 120

Lawrence is an underrated rusher and loves to push the ball down the field

Trevor Lawrence

didn’t quite take the leap many people thought he would in 2023. Fresh off leading the Jacksonville Jaguars to their first playoff win since 2017, many expected Lawrence to be a top fantasy quarterback, and he was regularly taken off the board as the seventh or eighth quarterback.

Instead, Lawrence finished as QB13 as the Jaguars missed the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. Lawrence struggled with injuries all season and threw 14 interceptions, nearly more than double what he’d thrown the season before. His top receiver, Calvin Ridley, departed in the offseason, taking with him 1,039 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns.

Managers are rightfully skeptical about whether Lawrence will ever live up to his pre-draft generational talent billing, but he’s being underrated heading into the 2024 fantasy draft and was recently rewarded with a five-year, $275 million contract extension.

The Jaguars added two deep threats over the offseason: Gabe Davis and rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr., and Lawrence is one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in the league. He had the lowest check-down rate in the league in 2023 and will only attempt to push the ball down the field more after the additions of Davis and Thomas Jr.

Furthermore, drops and bad luck meant Lawrence left a lot of points on the board in 2023. He had the most EPA lost to dropped passes last season, and the Jaguars had the highest rate of incompletions due to receiver error in the league.

His high interception rate and relatively low touchdown rate can be partly explained by statistical variance and should be at more reasonable levels in 2024. This makes him a perfect bounce-back candidate.

Several other stats make him a promising draft pick. He averaged 3.5 fantasy points per game via rushing, ranked seventh among quarterbacks. He led the league in big-time throws according to PFF (35) and had the joint-most passing touchdowns on attempts over 20 yards (11). He’s been paired with a receiver in Thomas Jr, who averaged 17.3 yards per catch and recorded 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023.

Lawrence still has the occasional issue with accuracy, and the Jaguars are far from the final product, but there’s plenty of promise. He was very unlucky last year and is being downgraded for reasons out of his control. He’s a bargain at his current price and could be a league-winner.

3

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers, ADP 125

‘Muth’ is the most experienced pass catcher on the Steelers roster

Pat Freiermuth

was never projected to be a star, but he was widely seen as a reasonably stable tight-end prospect with upside heading into the 2023 fantasy draft. ‘Muth’ had grabbed seven touchdowns in his first season in the league before finishing the 2022 season with 732 receiving yards.

However, he almost blended into the background in 2023, recording only 308 receiving yards in 12 games and finishing as TE29 in PPR. Managers who drafted him with the expectation that he’d be a reliable top-10 tight end had the rug pulled from under them, and there’s a lot of skepticism around the 25-year-old.

However, there are some reasons to think he’ll be substantially better this season. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, loves throwing to tight ends. As head coach of the Atlanta Falcons last season, he oversaw an offense that threw to the tight ends at the highest rate in the league.

Moreover, the Steelers have a very thin pass-catching group after trading away Diontae Johnson. George Pickens is the only player to record more than 1,000 receiving yards in a season, and Freiermuth is somehow one of the most experienced pass catchers. Due to a lack of other options, he’ll likely see more targets than last year.

Freiermuth is not a particularly sexy option, but he’s a capable tight end who should have a safe floor and a potentially high ceiling, depending on how involved he is in red zone plays. For those punting on the position, he’s especially valuable as he should be available in later rounds and should be more reliable than other tight ends around his ADP.

2

1

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons, ADP 62

Arthur Smith is no longer around, and Pitts has Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. Surely this’ll be the year he lives up to the hype?

Kyle Pitts

is the ultimate post-hype sleeper. After a disastrous 2022, managers talked themselves into giving Pitts another chance in 2023, only to be rewarded with another mediocre season.

He finished as TE13 in PPR, well below where he was expected to finish, especially since he was the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. He finished with 53 receptions, 667 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns, only 85 more receiving yards than fellow tight end Jonnu Smith.

Pitts was stuck on the most run-focused offense in the league, with heavy competition for touches within the tight end room. Former head coach Arthur Smith was sometimes unfairly criticized, but he did preside over a distinct downturn in Pitts’ form in 2022 and 2023, and his departure should only boost Pitts’ fantasy value.

New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson spent five years working under Sean McVay at the Los Angeles Rams and has operated in offenses that pass at a far higher rate. There’ll be far more targets going around, and Pitts will have less competition for touches after Jonnu Smith departed in the offseason. The Falcons signed run-blocking tight end Charlie Woerner to replace him, and Pitts will essentially be the only established pass-catching tight end.

Importantly, Pitts will catch passes from a far better quarterback than before. Neither Desmond Ridder nor Taylor Heinicke were particularly effective passers, and between them, they only threw for 17 touchdowns. New quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for 18 touchdowns in eight games last year before going down injured.

It’s now or never for Pitts as a fantasy asset. He’s in a far better position than in 2022 or 2023, and should at least be a top five or six tight end. He has the talent to become an elite tight end. It’s just a question of whether it’ll actually happen.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and all fantasy information courtesy of FantasyPros unless stated otherwise

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