Dolphins ‘Want to Pay’ Tua Tagovailoa this Offseason: Should They?

Highlights

The Miami Dolphins intend to give QB Tagovailoa a new deal worth around $50 million per season.
Tagovailoa’s inconsistencies against playoff teams and struggles in colder weather make a deal risky.
Signing Tagovailoa long-term could impede the team’s ability to build a balanced roster for success.

The quarterback market has grown exponentially higher after Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence agreed to contract extensions that exceeded $50 million per season.

Goff signed a four-year, $212 million contract with $170 million guaranteed, while Lawrence inked a five-year, $275 million deal with $142 million fully guaranteed.

Miami Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is next in line for a deal, as he is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported on SportsCenter, that the Dolphins ‘want to pay’ Tagovailoa this offseason and get a deal done prior to the start of the 2024 NFL season.

“The Dolphins are committed to doing a long-term deal, they’ve made that clear publicly and privately. Not a ton of progress yet, but I believe that they’re at least in the ballpark and this could perk up this summer. They’ve got six weeks before training camp. This is a player that led the league in passing, played in 17 games last year, showed he can be durable, so he’s got some leverage. They want to pay him.”

Tagovailoa will be playing on the fifth-year option the team exercised for this season, which pays the 26-year-old quarterback $23.1 million in 2024.

If Miami elects not to pay Tagovailoa, they could wait until next offseason to do so, or they can franchise tag him if they still have doubts regarding his longevity.

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa in throwback uniform

Update on Contract Talks Between Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa is heading into a contract year. How much will the Dolphins be willing to pay him?

Why The Dolphins Should be Wary in Negotiations

Tagovailoa’s performance against playoff teams could be a cause for concern.

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa throws in the cold — Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

It is true that the 26-year-old quarterback played the full slate of games in 2023, but that should be considered an outlier, as Tagovailoa has dealt with injuries every season prior.

Another reason why Miami should not rush to pay the former Alabama quarterback is the fact that he is a completely different player when the weather becomes cold.

Not only does the former 2020 first-round pick struggle in colder climates, but he also struggles against playoff teams. Last season was a case where this narrative is clearly relevant, as Tagovailoa’s play dramatically altered against teams above .500.

Tua Tagovailoa against non-playoff teams in 2023
Record	Completion Percentage	Passing Yards per Game	Yards/Pass	TD-INT	Passer Rating
10-1	71.7	293.6	9.0	22-8	110.7

Tua Tagovailoa against playoff teams in 2023
Record	Completion Percentage	Passing Yards Per Game	Yards/Pass	TD-INT	Passer Rating
1-6	62.8	227.6	6.6	8-7	80.8

Committing approximately $50 million per season and making Tagovailoa one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league is a risky proposition.

He has proven to be incredibly productive when everything is going according to plan, but once those plans are altered – if that means breakdown of play, missing a key player, change in weather, etc. – Tagovailoa has shown that he struggles when things go off script.

Miami has other top stars to pay

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle celebrate pre-game — Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

It will also be difficult for Miami to build an all-around roster if they decide to pay Tagovailoa, as receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the fourth each paid inside the top five in their position (Hill is fourth highest-paid receiver in the league with a $30 million/season average and Waddle is fifth highest-paid receiver in the league with $28.2 million/season average).

Hill has also hinted that he is seeking a new contract with the Dolphins, after seeing other top receivers sign massive extensions.

Having three of your highest-paid players as offensive players could leave the Dolphins with an unbalanced roster.

Miami also needs to consider who the true catalyst(s) of their offense are. Would Tua be the same QB without a duo like Hill and Waddle?

The good news for Tua, is his top receiver is fully supportive of his QB getting a massive payday.

Miami has to consider how Tua played down the stretch last year, and what he showed in the playoffs.

If the Dolphins are content with making the playoffs, then signing Tagovailoa to a lucrative, multi-year contract is what they will do.

However, if Miami is serious about being perennial Super Bowl contenders, they should look at alternative options via free agency or the 2025 draft after the conclusion of the 2024 season.

Source: Jeremy Fowler of ESPN

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.