Champions League draw simulated as Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham handed last 16 ties

The Champions League knockout stages are set with six Premier League clubs in the last 16 with Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham all looking to go far in the competition

The Champions League has progressed to the knockout stages following the conclusion of the play-off round on Tuesday evening. Atletico Madrid, Newcastle and Bayer Leverkusen secured their places in the round of 16, while Bodo/Glimt produced a remarkable upset against Serie A pace-setters Inter Milan, triumphing 5-2 on aggregate.

On Wednesday, Atalanta, Galatasaray, PSG and Real Madrid all completed the play-off stage. Five Premier League sides had already booked their berths in the last 16 by virtue of finishing inside the top eight during the league phase.

Arsenal led the standings, with Liverpool and Tottenham claiming third and fourth respectively despite their inconsistent domestic form. Chelsea secured sixth place while Manchester City scraped through in eighth. All five now await their round of 16 opponents.

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We have simulated to see how the 2025-26 Champions League last 16 draw could unfold and it handed four Premier League clubs the sternest possible tests. Chelsea’s potential opponents are either PSG or Newcastle, and in our simulation, they have been paired with the reigning holders after they knocked AS Monaco out.

By virtue of securing top spot, Arsenal will face either Atalanta or Bayer Leverkusen. Atalanta shocked Borussia Dortmund with a remarkable comeback to progress to the round of 16, but with the Italian side languishing in mid-table domestically, the Gunners ought to overcome them as they pursue their maiden European Cup triumph this season.

Liverpool and Tottenham encounter the same scenario as Chelsea, with them facing one of Galatasaray or Atletico Madrid. In our simulation, Tottenham have matched the former. Having already beaten Liverpool this season, the Turkish giants knocked Juventus out with help of an emphatic 5-2 win in the first-leg.

Arne Slot’s men have drawn the tougher of their two potential opponents of the two – Atletico Madrid. The clubs have already met, with the Reds securing a 3-2 victory at Anfield in September.

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In our simulation, Newcastle find themselves drawn against fifth-placed Barcelona from the league phase – a particularly daunting prospect given that the Magpies suffered a 2-1 defeat to the Spanish heavyweights in their opening group fixture at St James’ Park earlier this campaign.

Manchester City will meet either Bodo/Glimt or Real Madrid. In our simulation, it’s another encounter with the 14-time European champions. The sides have clashed in the knockout stages during each of the previous four campaigns, with Los Blancos emerging victorious on three occasions, including a 6-3 aggregate victory last term.

football.london’s simulated round of 16 in full…

PSG vs Chelsea.

Galatasaray vs Tottenham.

Real Madrid vs Man City.

Atalanta vs Arsenal.

Newcastle vs Barcelona Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool.

Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich.

The revamped Champions League structure ensures all sides understand their potential routes to the final. Consequently, those six Premier League clubs are now informed about their possible last-eight opponents.

The prospect of three all-English quarter-final ties exists, with Chelsea vs Tottenham, Manchester City vs Arsenal and Newcastle vs Liverpool all feasible scenarios. Arsenal are assured of second-leg home advantage having topped the league phase, while the remaining sides will need fortune from the draw to secure home status in the return fixture.

Our draw indicates Bayern, who finished second, seem to possess a promising path to the semi-finals where they might encounter Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Newcastle or Barcelona.

Simulated quarter-finals…

QF 1: PSG or Chelsea vs Galatasaray or Tottenham.

QF 2: Real Madrid or Man City vs Atalanta or Arsenal.

QF 3: Newcastle or Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid or Liverpool.

QF 4: Bodo/Glimt or Sporting vs Bayer Leverkusen or Bayern Munich.

Semi-finals….

Winner of QF 1 vs winner of QF 2.

Winner of QF 3 vs winner of QF 4.