Betting Preview and Best Bets for Premier League game

Wolverhampton Wanderers get the chance to see if the new manager ‘bounce’ – or at least an improvement following the removal of the old boss – is a real thing when they travel to face Leicester City this weekend.

Wolves sacked manager Gary O’Neil after their 2-1 home defeat to fellow relegation contenders Ipswich Town last weekend, and we now wait to see if the likely replacement – Vitor Pereira, who is on the brink of leaving Saudi Arabian club Al-Shabab for the Molineux post – will have taken charge in the Midlands in time for this game.

Result	Decimal odds	Fractional odds	US moneyline
Leicester City	2.55	31/20	+155
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.75	7/4	+175
Draw	3.60	13/5	+260

Without doing a deep data dive, the jury is out on whether a team immediately improves after a change of coach. It’s more situational than answering with a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’: sometimes the appointment of a new manager can lead to a sudden uptick in form, but on other occasions there’s hardly any improvement at all.

What’s clear ahead of this game is that, putting aside the issue of Wolves’ change of manager, there are hardly any reasons to back either side to collect all three points.

Leicester’s five-game Premier League form (W1-D1-L3) is far from impressive, while Wolves’ is even worse (W0-D1-L4). And, while it may be Wolves manager O’Neil that was given his marching orders, Leicester’ 10-game form is barely any better than that of their opponents: the Foxes, who are 17th in the Premier League table heading into the game, have picked up just 11 points from their last 10 fixtures (W3-D2-L5), while Wolves have collected eight (W2-D2-L6).

Best Bet

In the Match Odds market, Leicester are 2.55 (31/20) to collect all three points, while Wolves are 2.75 (7/4) to get off to the ideal start in the post O’Neil era. Given there are so few reasons to support either side, the Draw by default may be the smart selection, especially as it’s the biggest of the three prices, at 3.6 (13/5). But for us, there are too many question marks here, so we prefer to look elsewhere for our selections on the match.

Goals and Thrills on the Cards

In some of the Goals markets, the trends are far clearer and much more useful ahead of this match. Whichever way you look at it, games involving these two sides have normally produced goals this season, and we expect that trend to continue.

Leicester’s 16 Premier League games have averaged 4.0 goals per game so far, while their eight home games have produced 2.9 goals per game. Wolves’ 16 league games have averaged 3.4 goals per game, with their eight away games producing an average of 4.0 goals per game.

Thirteen of Leicester’s 16 games overall and five of their eight home games have featured three or more goals. The same applies to 12 of Wolves’ 16 league games and six of their eight away games. For more evidence that this game should feature goals, it’s also worth noting that Leicester have scored and conceded in all but one of their eight home matches, with the same applying to six of Wolves’ eight away games as well.

Given the stats, it seems likely that both sides will get on the scoresheet this weekend. On that basis, ‘Yes’ in the Both Teams to Score market is worth considering, although the best available odds of 1.57 (4/7) available will be a little short for many connoisseurs.

The price on the game having Over 2.75 Goals is a lot more appealing. This is currently available at best odds of 1.85 (17/20). With this selection, half your stakes will be placed on the game having Over 2.5 Goals and the other half on the game having Over 3.0 Goals (returned in the event of the game having exactly three goals).

Best Bet

As we’ve outlined above, 78 percent of Leicester and Wolves’ league games combined this season, and 69 percent of the relevant home and away games – i.e. Leicester’s home games and Wolves’ away games – have featured three or more goals.

On that basis, there’s little downside to backing Over 2.75 Goals at odds of 1.85, which is the market’s way of saying the chances of this game having three or more goals are around 54 percent. The stats so far this season would say the chances of the game having three or more goals are larger than the available price, so we’re happy to make this our headline pick.

Top selection – Over 2.75 Goals (1.85)

Cunha’s the Main Man

If you’re looking for a player in the Anytime Goalscorer market, Wolves’ Matheus Cunha would be our suggestion for the player to follow. He has been excellent this season, and especially dangerous away from home.

The 25-year-old Brazil international has scored eight times in the Premier League this season, and five of those goals came on the road. He’s found the net at Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Fulham, netting those five goals at a rate of a goal every 133 minutes.

There’s a slight doubt hanging over his participation in the game this weekend, given the FA charge he’s facing for his part in a fracas at the end of the defeat to Ipswich Town that was O’Neil’s last match in charge. So check team news ahead of the game to see if he’s likely to take his customary place in the starting line-up.

Best Bet

Should Matheus Cunha play, the odds of 3.0 (2/1) on him scoring hold plenty of appeal: he’s found the net in 50 percent of the away games he’s played so far this season. On the basis of those stats, his odds look too big. We’re making no selection in this market, but if you are looking for a player to back to find the net, the ex-Atletico Madrid attacker would be the man.

Odds from Oddschecker – Correct as of 19/12/2024