Bet On Seahawks Against Tagovailoa-less Miami

Somehow, through all the unexpected carnage and upsets of Week 2, we still came away with another successful lock of the week, as the Pittsburgh Steelers completely silenced the Denver Broncos to cover the spread and then some.

• 2024 Point Spread Lock Record: 2-0 (+1.82 Units)

In Week 1, it was a coaching mismatch that caught our eye. In Week 2, it was Mike Tomlin’s particular set of skills. But in Week 3, we centered our analysis on a player: Tua Tagovailoa.

The Miami Dolphins‘ franchise QB is out indefinitely after suffering another in a long line of scary concussions, and the Dolphins, for some reason, didn’t prepare a suitable Plan B. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league across the first two weeks of the season.

Not only is Tagovailoa’s absence perhaps the most significant one in the league for Week 3, but the situation in which his team finds itself for this matchup does not bode well for the Fins based on recent trends either. Let’s dive in and try to keep this hot streak alive.

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The Dolphins Are Terrible Without Tagovailoa

Mike McDaniel has struggled to beat teams with winning records

Week 3 Point Spread Lock: Seahawks Cover -4.5 Point Spread (-110)

First off, the importance of Tagovailoa’s absence cannot be understated. Whatever you think of him as a quarterback in the winter months, this team has been abysmal without him, flapping in the wind as teams pummel them into submission.

We saw that again last Thursday, when Tagovailoa picked up his injury. Miami was already down big, but after Tagovailoa exited the game, Miami had three drives led by backup Skylar Thompson, all of which ended with a turnover on downs.

Thompson has not impressed when he’s been given the ball as a starter. In the team’s 2022 playoff game, where he started in place of Tagovailoa, the team actually played well and stayed in it, but not because of Thompson, who had an ugly day, throwing more incompletions than completions and more interceptions than touchdowns.

The Dolphins did sign Tyler Huntley, who has more experience as a starter and provides more of a dual-threat than Thompson, but he’s not ready to start just yet, so it will be Thompson under center for Miami in Seattle, which is great news for the Seahawks.

Seattle has started the season well, as they’re one of just nine teams to start the campaign 2-0, though both of their wins came against subpar squads. Nonetheless, without Tagovailoa and with the injuries they have on defense and in the backfield, we’d consider the Dolphins to be a subpar team as well.

Since Mike McDaniel arrived as head coach, the Fins have certainly been well below subpar when they play teams with winning records, like these here Seahawks.

As you can see, not only do they lose to winning teams, but they lose by a lot. Considering that’s the case for Tagovailoa-less games too, this seemed like the perfect storm.

Not to mention that this one will be taking place out West at Lumen Field, one of the loudest stadiums and strongest homefield advantages in the league. Since 2000, the Seahawks have the fifth-best home record, with a .663 winning percentage since then. They’re 11-7 at home over the last two years, while Miami is 7-10 on the road over that span.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Dolphins have not had success traveling to the Pacific since McDaniel took charge, as they have gone 1-3 straight up in West Coast games since 2022. New Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald has his offense humming with a litany of weapons, even with starting RB Kenneth Walker III likely to miss the game. Miami has weapons too, but the difference is, Seattle has a QB who can get them the ball.

Last but not least, the Seahawks have pressured the QB on 37 percent of defensive snaps, the third-best in the league, while Miami is in the bottom five, with just a 15.6 pressure rate. Considering Thompson is a skittish backup, that pressure discrepancy should prove telling.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.