Best Bets, Picks, & Odds

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been a mess since last December. Trevor Lawrence is the franchise QB, but the team has lost his last seven starts. Owner Shad Khan made it clear that Jacksonville should be competing, yet the results are that of years past. Those weren’t fun years.

Meanwhile, plenty of people expected the Buffalo Bills to take a major step back after their offseason. Instead, a statement win last Thursday has the team 2-0, best in the AFC East. It’s early, but everything looks good in Western New York again.

Hosting the Jaguars in another primetime clash, the Bills will try to keep the ball rolling. Jacksonville desperately needs to get that first win out of the way. Who will succeed in an important Monday night battle?

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Recent Performance & Stats

Jacksonville’s defense is limiting damage

Despite two losses, the Jaguars have only allowed 38 points, a competitive 19.0 ppg average. They held a fully healthy Miami Dolphins offense to 20 before holding Cleveland to 18. They’re only surrendering 3.8 yards per carry, a top-10 mark in the NFL.

When opponents are moving the ball, and the Jags allow 5.4 yards per play, it comes through the air. There, the defense is giving up 7.4 yards per attempt. Five sacks have helped pressure opposing defenses. Jacksonville is still seeking its first takeaway of the season.

Offensively, the Jaguars are a mess. They have 30 points after two games. With only one giveaway, ball security isn’t to blame. Seven sacks allowed are killing a lot of potential scoring opportunities.

On the ground, Travis Etienne Jr. is the leading rusher but only averages 3.8 yards per carry. The team mark is 5.4 yards per rush attempt. Through the air, Lawrence is picking up 7.5 yards per attempt and hasn’t thrown a pick yet. However, his completion percentage is an uninspiring 51.0%. The main stars on offense are not producing as efficiently as the team expects.

Buffalo’s brightest star, Josh Allen, is still himself even without Stefon Diggs. He’s only been sacked twice, hasn’t thrown an interception, and his 8.8 yards per pass attempt is the NFL’s fourth-highest mark. Buffalo hasn’t missed a beat throwing the ball, a major reason why they average 5.8 yards per play.

However, four of the team’s seven TDs have come running the ball. James Cook (149 rushing yards; 5.0 ypc) has emerged as a top threat for a rushing attack, gaining 4.0 yards per carry. Aided by Allen’s legs, this team will run the ball more than they throw it in most games. At 32.5 points per contest, the Bills should be confident about their offensive process.

A defense that only allowed 10 points last time out should feel great too. Buffalo was superb defensively last season and is building on that in 2024. They have six sacks, four takeaways, and hold teams to 4.6 yards per play.

Opposing QBs have only gained 5.5 yards per attempt against the Bills, the second-fewest in the league. On the ground, Buffalo is limiting foes to 4.5 yards per carry, a modest mark. This is a defense that tends to make plays.

Jacksonville has ruled out Evan Engram and Darnell Savage. Tank Bigsby and Tim Jones are questionable. For the Bills, Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson are both out.

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Betting Trends & Picks

Three of the last four Bills vs. Jaguars games ended under the total

• The under is 5-1-0 in Jacksonville’s last six games
• The Jaguars are 2-6-0 ATS in their past eight
• Jacksonville is 1-3-0 ATS in their previous four road games
• The Jags scored first in seven of their last nine road games
• Jacksonville is on a three-game losing streak
• Jacksonville beat the spread in both meetings with Buffalo since 2021
• The Bills have won eight of their last nine games
• The over is 5-2-0 in Buffalo’s last seven games
• Buffalo is 1-3-0 ATS in their previous four home contests
• The Bills are 3-1-0 ATS in the past four games against AFC opponents

Point Spread Pick – Buffalo Bills -5.5

Nothing that Jacksonville has done offensively is promising for this game. Etienne is only gaining 3.8 yards per carry. Lawrence is barely completing 50% of his passes. The pass protection is suspect. Their offensive struggles aren’t a fluke, and Buffalo is one of the toughest challenges they’ll face.

Assuming that the Jags don’t score more than 17 points again, this game will be a comfortable victory for the Bills. Their offense exceeded 30 points in both games. Allen has been one of the NFL’s most efficient passers, and Jacksonville’s defense has been awful at slowing down aerial attacks. Backed by a great home-field advantage, Buffalo will advance to 3-0 with at least a seven-point win.

Over/Under Pick – Under 45.5

There’s a reason five of the Jaguars’ past six games finished under the total. They’ve only exceeded 20 points once in that span. This year, they’re averaging 15.0 points per game and facing a Bills defense that will completely neutralize their passing game. Jacksonville hasn’t been rushing well enough for that to be a threat.

Buffalo’s offense is dynamic, but they’re a run-first team now. Jacksonville’s defense is holding opponents to 3.8 yards per carry, so they can slow down Cook and Allen. Getting stops there will give the Jaguars’ defense plenty of chances to get off the field. Take the under in this Monday night game.

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Player Props & Best Bets

Travis Etienne Jr. 50+ Rushing Yards (-110)

If Jacksonville is going to move the ball at all, it’ll have to come on the ground. Buffalo’s pass rush and secondary are too much for their struggling passing game. With Bigsby banged up, the burden falls on Etienne, who already gets most of the touches.

History shows that he’ll get at least 12 carries. The Bills allow 4.5 yards per carry, so there should be lanes for Etienne to make plays. He racked up 52 last week, an improvement from Week 1, and will continue to progress with the season. This is the perfect week for Etienne to have a big game and he’ll deliver.

Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Jaguars have already allowed a passer to topple 300 yards this season. They’re allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Compared to a top-10 rush defense, Jacksonville is weak against the pass. \

Allen, who’s collecting the second-most yards per pass attempt, will take advantage. His career passing average is 240.4 yards. He’s exceeded 250.0 yards per game in four consecutive seasons. When the Jags slow down the run, Allen will make it a moot point by exposing their secondary.

Ed Oliver Over 0.25 Sacks (+124)

In Week 1, Jacksonville let Lawrence get sacked thrice. In their second game, he went down four times. Shoddy pass protection is a major reason the Jaguars struggle to throw the ball. Buffalo was fourth in sacks last year and has 6.0 through two games. Their pass rush will be a problem all night.

Ed Oliver is the guy who will come up with at least one sack this week. He had one against Miami last week. In 2023, he finished with 9.5 sacks, so bringing down opposing QBs is in his skill set. Anticipate another on Monday Night Football.

All stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise. All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.