Barcelona vs Inter Milan Predictions and Betting Tips for Champions League Semi-Final

FC Barcelona

are clear favourites as they head into their UEFA Champions League

semi-final first leg at home to Inter Milan

on Wednesday night (Central European Time).

There was a jubilant mood in the Barcelona camp over the weekend when they secured their 3-2 extra-time win over arch-rivals Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey Final in Seville on Saturday night. But now they must re-focus, and they head into their midweek fixture heavily fancied to secure a first-leg advantage.

Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid: Player Ratings and Match Highlights

A back and forth contested ended with an extra-time winner for Barcelona.

To Win In 90 Minutes This Week	Decimal Odds	Fractional Odds	US Moneyline
Barcelona	1.74	20/27	-135
The Draw	4.2	16/5	+320
Inter	4.6	18/5	+360

To Qualify For The Final	Decimal Odds	Fractional Odds	US Moneyline
Barcelona	1.57	4/7	-175
Inter	2.6	8/5	+160

As the first of our two tables above shows, Barcelona are odds-on to win in front of their own fans this week. They are 1.74 (20/27) to do so, while Inter are 4.6 (18/5) to record an away win. The Draw is 4.2 (16/5).

The second odds table shows that Barcelona are also clear favourites to make it through to the final. At the time of writing, the Catalans are 1.57 (4/7) to qualify for the final in Munich on May 31, where they will meet either Arsenal or PSG. Inter are 2.6 (8/5) to knock Barcelona out and go through instead. These odds are the market’s way of saying that Barcelona have a 64 percent of progressing, with Inter given a 39 percent chance.

Best bet

In our view, Barcelona’s clear favouritism is justified. Even though it is sometimes difficult to compare sides that play in different leagues, the La Liga outfit have looked the stronger of the two sides for most of the season. They also meet Inter at arguably the perfect time, given the woes the Serie A club bring into this game.

Two weekends ago, Inter lost 1-0 at Bologna in Serie A, a result that saw Napoli draw level with them at the top of the table. In the middle of last week, Inter then lost 3-0 against city rivals AC Milan in the Coppa Italia semi-final second leg, going out of that competition. And on Sunday, they lost 1-0 at home to Roma in Serie A, dealing their hopes of retaining their league title a further serious blow.

In other words, confidence is likely to be in short supply in the visiting ranks as they head into the game. The mood will be far more upbeat in the home camp, and Barcelona have played the better football in recent weeks.

Taking all factors into account, we are happy to back Barcelona. We believe the hosts will be too strong for Simone Inzaghi’s visitors, and should give their fans something to cheer about just four days after their Copa del Rey triumph by winning here as well.

Top selection – Barcelona (1.73)

High-Scoring Game on the Cards

We believe Barcelona will win, but we would not write off Inter’s chances completely. The visitors will be dangerous at various points in the game, and that leads us towards our second selection on the match.

In making it through their quarter-final tie against Bayern Munich, Inter scored four times (albeit against a depleted Bayern defence). They won 2-1 in the first leg in Germany, before drawing 2-2 in the return fixture at the San Siro a week later.

Inter have now scored at least once in 12 of their last 15 away games in all competitions, and have often looked more dangerous on the road than when playing at home. Away goals may no longer carry a bonus in European competition, but the Italian visitors may believe they have a better chance of troubling Barcelona’s back line here in Catalonia than when the two teams meet in Italy next week.

Best bet

Inter’s habit of scoring goals away from home points us towards two different markets on the match. The first is Over 2.5 Goals. This can be backed at 1.63 (5/8).

The second is the Both Teams to Score market. ‘Yes’ in this market is available at 1.6 (3/5). For this selection to earn you a profit, you need both teams to score at least once in the game.

Both selections are worth considering on a game that we expect to be open and entertaining, and where attacks are likely to triumph over defences. We prefer Over 2.5 Goals, which is partly down to Inter’s scoring form on the road, but also informed by the scoring patterns in Barcelona’s Champions League games.

Go Even Higher on the Goals Line

While we advocate for Over 2.5 Goals, the stats on the hosts in this competition this season suggest a notably high-scoring encounter may be on the cards.

Eleven of Barcelona’s 12 2024-25 Champions League games have had Over 2.5 Goals. Such a high-scoring trend is a clear reflection of the attacking emphasis that manager Hansi Flick has placed on his team this season.

The goals-per-game count in Barcelona’s fixtures in the competition this season is an extraordinarily high 4.5. It includes such scorelines as their 5-4 win at Benfica in the group phase, and their 4-0 home win over Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals.

Best bet

Given how high-scoring Barcelona’s Champions League games have been this season, you may like to consider backing the game to have goals on a higher line than the Over 2.5 Goals line.

Over 3 Goals, for example, can be backed at 1.93 (13/14). With this selection, your stakes will be refunded if the game has exactly three goals. You will make a profit – at better odds than if you had backed Over 2.5 Goals – if the game has four or more goals.

Nine of Barcelona’s 12 Champions League games have featured four or more goals. This means that the stats – as far as Barcelona are concerned, at least – are on your side with our Over 3 Goals selection.