Odds for No. 2 Pick See Major Shift

Highlights

Recent sportsbook odds movement suggests Jayden Daniels is no longer a lock to be the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft.
The Washington Commanders recently hosted four quarterbacks on draft visits, leading to the fluctuation.
One of the draft’s most polarizing QB prospects is nearly 50/50 with Daniels to head to Washington.

With the No. 2 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Washington Commanders select… someone other than Jayden Daniels? Recent sportsbook activity indicates that may be the case.

Over the past three days, major sportsbooks have seen a drastic shift in odds concerning who’s going to be taken at No. 2 overall. Daniels, once a -330 favorite to be the second player off the board, is merely a -125 favorite today, per BetMGM, to hear his name called directly after projected No. 1 selection Caleb Williams.

The movement comes after the Commanders hosted Daniels and three other quarterback prospects on the same day late last week, a decision that drew criticism from Daniels’ agent and others. While nobody will be certain who the Commanders prefer until they’re on the clock, their free agent and coaching staff decisions seem to indicate Daniels has been their intended target for months.

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Roseman has shown a tendency to tenaciously go after the players he is most interested in and this year should be no different.

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A polarizing prospect has risen back up the ranks

The conversation surrounding non-Caleb Williams draft-eligible quarterbacks has come in waves. Through much of the offseason, J.J. McCarthy was showered with praise like Cinderella at the ball, while Drake Maye wore verbal lashings like the overworked, homebound version of the princess. However, the recently turning tide has seen the latter move back up the board.

Maye is now the second-most likely candidate to be donning the Commanders’ slipper, according to BetMGM. The University of North Carolina quarterback was a +270 bet as recently as Friday, but is now up to even-money (+100) to follow Williams. McCarthy and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. carry the next-best odds beyond Daniels and Maye.

Implied Probability of Going No. 2 Overall
Draft Prospect	BetMGM Odds	Implied Probability
Jayden Daniels	-125	55.6%
Drake Maye	+100	50.0%
J.J. McCarthy	+1800	5.3%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	+10000	1.0%
*Odds as of 04/22/2024 and are subject to change

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner possesses an incredibly high ceiling, one he demonstrated during his incredible final collegiate campaign last year. However, there are some causes for concern regarding his potential transition to the professional level.

Perhaps these worries have crept into the minds of Washington’s brain trust and bred uncertainty. It’s also possible the Commanders are trying to disguise their intention of drafting Daniels for one reason or another. Whatever the case may be, the odds of either prospect being available at No. 3 overall are essentially a coin flip, one that won’t turn up with its result until Thursday night.

Source: BetMGM

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.