Napoli vs Chelsea prediction and odds ahead of Champions League clash

Former boss Antonio Conte welcomes his former employers Chelsea to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona as Napoli prepare for their final Champions League group stage appearance

Familiar faces will find themselves on opposite sides at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Wednesday, as Napoli host Chelsea in a crucial, must-win clash for both teams on the final day of the Champions League league phase.

Antonio Conte returns to face his former club knowing that his 25th-placed Napoli side must claim all three points to keep their European campaign alive, while Chelsea are also in need of a victory to secure a coveted top-eight finish and automatic progression to the last 16.

Napoli’s week has gone from bad to worse, following up a disappointing draw with 10-man Copenhagen in their previous Champions League outing with a heavy 3-0 defeat to Juventus at the Allianz Stadium. That loss leaves the defending Serie A champions nine points adrift of leaders Inter Milan and still outside the top 24 in the Champions League league phase, sitting 25th on goal difference in a five-way tie on eight points. A win on Wednesday, however, could be enough to push them into the knockout phase playoffs.

There is reason for optimism in Naples, as the Azzurri have collected seven points from a possible nine at home during the league phase and boast a strong European record against English sides, winning eight of their 11 home encounters and losing just twice. One of those victories came against Chelsea back in the 2011-12 season, when Napoli triumphed 3-1 at home in the last 16, only for the Blues to overturn the deficit at Stamford Bridge and ultimately go on to lift the trophy.

Chelsea return to the Maradona 14 years after that memorable tie, but much has changed since then. None of the current Chelsea squad were part of the team that won their first Champions League title, and even Antonio Conte—who managed Chelsea from 2016 to 2018—would find few familiar faces among the traveling supporters, given the club’s transformation over the past eight years.

Despite the nostalgia, Chelsea arrive in determined mood, eager to secure direct passage to the last 16 and avoid the uncertainty of a playoff. The Blues are buoyed by their best performance under Liam Rosenior, a 3-1 win at Crystal Palace that extended their unbeaten run against the Eagles to 18 matches and marked their third consecutive victory in all competitions. Since Enzo Maresca’s departure, Chelsea have won four of their last five games and are seeking a fourth straight win for the first time since last autumn.

However, Chelsea’s record on Italian soil remains a concern—they have won just two of 13 European away games in Italy, losing eight, including a 2-1 defeat to Atalanta in December. The Blues are also winless in their last five Champions League away matches, suffering defeats to Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Atalanta, and drawing with Qarabag FK.

With eight teams currently on 13 points, Chelsea could still finish as high as third—Real Madrid sit in third with 15 points—but a defeat in Naples, coupled with unfavorable results elsewhere, could see them drop into the unseeded group for the knockout playoffs.

While Napoli’s situation is slightly less precarious than Chelsea’s, both sides are under immense pressure to secure maximum points in this high-stakes encounter at the Maradona.

Napoli vs Chelsea Betting Tips

• Napoli to win to nil – 12/5 (Betfred)
• Scott McTominay to score anytime – 11/4 (Betfred)

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