Betting Preview and Best Bets for Premier League game

Liverpool are red-hot favourites to claim all three points against desperately out-of-form arch-rivals Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday afternoon (UK time).

The home crowd will be itching to see their favourites take on United in what is always one of the Premier League’s biggest fixtures, as every single factor appears to be in the hosts’ favour as kick-off approaches.

Result	Decimal odds	Fractional odds	US moneyline
Liverpool	1.31	31/100	-323
The Draw	6.5	11/2	+550
Manchester United	11.0	10/1	+1000

Liverpool have enjoyed a fantastic first-half of the season under Arne Slot and sit proudly top of the Premier League table. The Reds are six points clear of nearest challengers Arsenal with a game in hand, their record a formidable W14-D3-L1 so far.

Liverpool are also an impressive W7-D1-L1 at home this season, and W4-D1-L0 from their last five matches at Anfield. The head-to-head record also makes for deeply depressing reading for Manchester United’s legion of followers around the globe: United have failed to win on any of their last nine visits (W0-D4-L5) to Anfield, scoring just once across those nine matches.

As if that head-to-head record is not bad enough, United’s general form is even worse: they have lost six of their first 11 matches under manager Ruben Amorim, including their last four in all competitions. This dismal run includes defeats ‘to nil’ in each of their last three Premier League games: 0-2 (home) vs Newcastle United, 0-2 (away) vs Wolves, and 0-3 (home) vs Bournemouth.

Best Bet

Liverpool are 1.31 (31/100) to collect all three points, with Manchester United 11.0 (10/1) and the Draw 6.5 (11/2). Those odds are the market’s way of giving Liverpool a 76 percent chance of triumphing in front of what would be largely jubilant stands at Anfield.

We expect the hosts to win, but as we detail below, there are better ways of supporting Slot’s players than taking the short odds available in the Match Odds market.

Hosts the Handicap Pick

Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez with his hands on his hips

As Liverpool are such overwhelming favourites to secure yet another win, we prefer backing them in the Asian Handicap market.

In this market, a handicap is added to a team before the game starts. If you were to back Liverpool -1.0, for example, Liverpool would be starting the game with minus one goal. You add the handicap to the actual final scoreline in the game to see whether you have a winning selection.

The Asian Handicap is a smart way to invest in this match because Liverpool have been so dominant at home, and United are in such dreadful form home and away. By studying the statistics, evidence-based ways of backing Liverpool at better odds emerge.

Liverpool Asian Handicap	Decimal odds	Fractional odds
-1.0	1.4	2/5
-1.25	1.6	3/5
-1.5	1.81	81/100
-1.75	2.04	26/25
-2.0	2.3	13/10
-2.25	2.7	17/10
-2.5	2.85	37/20
-2.75	3.45	49/20

We note, for example, that five of Liverpool’s seven home wins this season have been by a margin of two or more goals. And, since Amorim was appointed as their manager, four of United’s five Premier League defeats have been by a margin of two or more goals as well. This clear pattern can then be applied to the prices available in the Asian Handicap market.

Best Bet

As our Asian Handicap table above shows, Liverpool can be backed with a -1.5 Asian Handicap start at odds of 1.81 (81/100). With this selection, you would need Liverpool to win by a margin of two or more goals for the selection to pay out.

Given how frequently Liverpool have won by two or more goals at home this season, and how often United have lost by the same margin in the Premier League since Amorim took over, we are happy to make this our main pick on the game.

Top selection – Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap (1.81)

Salah to Strike Again

Liverpool striker Mohamed Salah celebrates scoring

As Liverpool are likely to do more – or perhaps all – of the scoring, it stands to reason that their players should be the focus of attention in the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Eleven different players have scored for Liverpool in the Premier League this season: Mohamed Salah leads the way with 17 goals, followed by Luis Diaz (eight), Cody Gakpo (five), Diogo Jota (four), Curtis Jones (three), Darwin Núñez and Dominik Szoboszlai (two), and Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konate, Alexis MacAllister and Virgil van Dijk (one each).

Liverpool Scorer	Anytime Goalscorer Decimal Odds	Anytime Goalscorer Fractional Odds
Mohamed Salah	1.83	5/6
Darwin Nunez	2.35	27/20
Diogo Jota	2.48	29/20
Cody Gakpo	2.85	37/20
Federico Chiesa	2.88	15/8
Luis Diaz	3.05	41/20
Harvey Elliott	4.35	10/3
Dominik Szoboszlai	4.5	7/2
Curtis Jones	5.0	4/1
Alexis MacAllister	5.8	24/5
Ryan Gravenberch	9.0	8/1
Trent Alexander-Arnold	9.0	8/1
Wataru Endo	10.0	9/1
Virgil van Dijk	11.0	10/1
Ibrahima Konate	12.0	11/1

Is it possible to look past Salah in the Anytime Goalscorer market? Not really. As our table shows, he is short odds to find the net, yet he arguably deserves to be even shorter considering what sensational form he is in.

The 32-year-old tops the Premier League scoring charts, three goals clear of his nearest challenger, Erling Haaland. He has scored in 14 of the 18 Premier League matches in which he has played this season. And his record against Manchester United is stunning: he has netted 15 times in his last 12 appearances against the Red Devils.

Best Bet

Salah’s form is so good he is worth backing in the Anytime Goalscorer market. His short odds may put people off, but the fact he has scored in 78 percent of the Premier League games in which he has played this season is worth noting.

His real odds of finding the net in the Premier League, based on his scoring record so far this season, are 1.28. On that basis, the 1.83 (5/6) available at the time of writing looks generous.