Highlights
- Injured players in fantasy football drafts are often cheaper, but historically, buying the dip has been unsuccessful.
- Nick Chubb is a beloved running back, but his injury will crush his effectiveness.
- T.J. Hockenson may only be available for a handful of fantasy matchups this season.
Unfortunately, football is a physically taxing game that often leads to injuries. Many of these injuries can require months to recover from and affect a player’s availability and performance in the following season.
In fantasy football, these injured players typically feature a reduced price in drafts. This is often referred to as “buying the dip” for injured players. Historically, buying the dip has been unsuccessful; it was disastrous last season.
Just 29 percent of players who featured a markdown due to injury concerns ended up returning value. Heading into this season, there is a new crop of rehabbing players who are sliding down draft boards.
Players who are not healthy enough to suit up for Week 1 are often placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. Players on the PUP list are ineligible to return until at least Week 5.
These are five players who have already been (or likely will be soon) placed on the PUP list that fantasy footballers should avoid in drafts. This list also includes a few players who probably won’t hit the PUP list but should not be drafted due to injury concerns.
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Fantasy Football 2024: 8 “Do Not Draft” Players
Avoid these eight players in upcoming fantasy football drafts.
1
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Chubb will struggle to look like his former self
Nick Chubb quickly established himself as one of the NFL’s best running backs after entering the league in 2018. Through six seasons, he has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry each year. His efficiency and overall output have been truly remarkable.
Chubb looked like his usual self early last season. He torched the Cincinnati Bengals for 127 total yards in Week 1 en route to a victory. Unfortunately, his season would end in Week 2, where he tore his ACL, MCL, and meniscus.
Multi-ligament tears have always been problematic for running backs. They often result in the player struggling to return to their previous form. It will be no different with Chubb, who recently shared that he feels different this offseason (via JOC Films):
It’s different now because I feel like I’m behind. Usually I’m healthy and I’m working to get faster and stronger. Now I’m just trying to catch up to get to the person I once was.
Mutli-ligament tears have typically caused a hit to a running back’s efficiency in their first season back. For a player whose fantasy value is driven by elite rushing efficiency, the whole situation makes Chubb an easy fade. Somehow, his price is even rising.
He was recently added to the PUP list in the early days of training camp. Chubb will likely not see the field until mid-season, at best.
2
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Hockenson will likely be unavailable for most of the fantasy season
T.J. Hockenson will also be looking to return from a multi-ligament tear this season. He tore his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve (Week 16) last year.
In a recent interview, head coach Kevin O’Connell indicated that Hockenson is, “well ahead of schedule” in the rehab process. Even still, his late surgery (January 29th) means that Hockenson will miss an extended portion of the season.
Even with O’Connell’s encouraging remarks, historical recovery timelines indicate that Week 8 is likely the best-case scenario for Hockenson. The multi-ligament nature of this injury makes his return date even cloudier.
Hockenson is being drafted as a starter (top-12 TE) on some platforms. For a player who will play half the season at best, this price is egregious. This doesn’t even consider the potential for Hockenson to be limited in his usage and effectiveness upon return.
All things considered, Hockenson has no business being drafted inside the top 15 TEs considering his recovery timeline.
3
Mike Williams, WR, New York Jets
Williams is on the preseason PUP list
Mike Williams’ season ended rather early in 2023 after suffering an ACL tear in Week 3. On top of rehabbing this injury, Williams made a move in free agency, signing with the New York Jets.
New York is being cautious with Williams in his recovery. They placed him on the preseason PUP list, meaning he will not participate in any training camp practices until he is activated.
It is important to note that this is different from the regular season PUP list and does not mean he will miss four games. Williams can be activated and rejoin the team at any point during training camp. Williams and the Jets have indicated that he is aiming to be active for Week 1.
Even though it’s unlikely he will hit the PUP list, the ACL tear will undoubtedly impact his 2024 season. As previously mentioned, major reconstructive knee surgery often negatively impacts a player’s ability to perform at pre-injury levels.
NFL fans recently became painfully aware of a player whose career was derailed by an ACL tear. Michael Gallup was an exciting receiver who suffered an ACL tear and retired at the age of 28 after struggling to return to form. Now, every case is different, but this highlights the fact that these injuries should not be completely dismissed.
Williams will be 30 in October and has made a living as a vertical threat. If he is unable to fully recover, he could easily become irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
4
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Mitchell is being eased back in by the Ravens’ coaching staff
Keaton Mitchell joined the Baltimore Ravens as an exciting undrafted free agent last season. His 4.37 40-yard dash and breakaway speed made him a great change of pace back for the Ravens.
Like Hockenson, Mitchell’s season came to an end rather late in the year. He tore his ACL in Week 15, ending his rookie campaign. John Harbaugh and the Ravens coaching staff have made it clear that they will be careful with Mitchell as he recovers (via RavensWire):
Yes. I think Keaton [Mitchell] is doing really well. We’ll see. Obviously, [it was a] significant knee injury, but we have some experience with that. I’ve gotten some updates from our trainers and doctors, and we feel like he’s on the path to come back at some point this season.
The “at some point this season” part of this quote is what is most concerning for fantasy managers. Mitchell showed flashes of his potential as a dynamic difference-maker last season, but he doesn’t provide any value if he’s not on the field.
Mitchell has not been placed on the PUP list just yet, but it is all but guaranteed that he will end up there. It will be a late-season return at best for a player who relied on explosive plays to deliver any sort of fantasy value.
Mitchell will be a roster clogger who may not be fantasy-relevant at any point this season. Let someone else take a stab at him in drafts.
5
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins is attempting to recover from multiple significant injuries
After beginning his career in Baltimore, J.K. Dobbins followed Greg Roman and his prolific rushing attack to Los Angeles. There is virtually zero chance that Dobbins will make his way to the PUP list. But, Dobbins’ 2024 season (and career as a whole) will be viewed through the lens of his ability to overcome injury.
Dobbins suffered a torn Achilles in Week 1 of last season. Coupled with an ACL tear in 2021, Dobbins has not had a truly healthy season since his rookie year in 2020. Achilles injuries have not been kind to running backs. D’Onta Foreman, Justice Hill, and Cam Akers are the most recent examples of players who have recovered from this injury. But none of them have been highly impactful on their respective returns.
The combination of multiple devastating injuries calls into question his ability to compete in the NFL. This question is reflected in Dobbins’ contract with the Chargers. He is on a one-year deal that has just 50k in guaranteed money.
Dobbins essentially has a try-out with the Chargers. While L.A. may be comfortable with this, you should not let him try out for your fantasy team. The odds are stacked against Dobbins, and he will likely never play a significant role on an NFL roster again in his career.
All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and fantasy data from Fantasy Pros, unless stated otherwise.
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