5 NFL Teams Who Regressed The Most This Offseason

The offseason is an exciting time, but not for every NFL team.

Between free agency and the NFL Draft, you would assume that every club would improve in the offseason, but that isn’t the case. There are plenty of NFL teams that lose more free agents than they’re able to replace throughout the offseason.

Most of the time, it’s the best teams in the league that regress, since it’s easier to lose top tier talent than it is to add more of it. As they say, getting better is like climbing a ladder, whereas getting worse is like going down a slide.

The best teams in the NFL perform at that level for a reason, but these front offices tend to have to make business decisions on which of their best players they want to retain. With the salary cap, it’s nearly impossible to keep everyone.

However, the level of regression varies from team to team, and these five seemingly regressed a lot more than their peers this spring and summer.

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1

Dallas Cowboys

There isn’t a more obvious team that regressed this offseason than the Cowboys

Despite Jerry Jones’ desire to go “all-in”, the Dallas Cowboys had their most discouraging offseason in years. Dallas hasn’t been aggressive in free agency over the last decade, but this offseason felt even more conservative than recent years, as they lost many of their own, while failing to replace them.

Former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, took three key players along with him when he signed to become the new Washington Commanders head coach. Dallas replaced the offensive line departures in the NFL Draft, while only really addressing the running back position late in free agency, by signing Ezekiel Elliott and Royce Freeman.

With how many key contributors the Cowboys lost, it seems unlikely that they will have their fourth consecutive 12-win season. The competition only increased across the rest of the NFC, while Dallas sat back and watched. With three looming contract negotiations for the Cowboys’ stars, it appears the front office has already checked out for 2024, with preparations for 2025 and beyond.

2

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is going to be forced to have a brand-new offensive identity in 2024

The Cowboys aren’t the only team that is moving on to 2025. After this offseason, all the same arguments could be made about the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo lost many of their cornerstone players on both sides of the ball.

Between the wide receiver corps and the secondary, the Bills had a complete overhaul in talent this offseason. The goal seems clear: get younger.

The Bills should be in better shape on defense than on offense, with the emergence of their young players in the secondary, the addition of Mike Edwards, and the return of several key players who were injured for large swaths of the 2023 campaign.

It’s the offense that could be problematic this season, as the team lost 43.3% of their targets with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. They did draft Keon Coleman and signed Curtis Samuel, who will be forced to eat up most of those targets, though it would be a lot to ask them to replace the production of those two players.

Buffalo is still the team to beat in the AFC East, but they won’t be as big of a threat in the AFC as a whole in 2024.

3

Baltimore Ravens

A heartbreaking playoff loss wasn’t enough for the Ravens to boost their roster

Everyone will immediately look at the Baltimore Ravens’ signing of Derrick Henry and assume they greatly improved, but that is the only major move they made in free agency. Furthermore, the addition of a 30-year-old running back coming off of his least efficient season since 2017 isn’t necessarily the flex that fans think it is.

The difficult part about losing in the AFC Championship Game is that the team is likely to lose several key players. Not only did the Ravens lose key players, but they lost some important coaches.

Baltimore lost players from many different positions, but the biggest losses came from last year’s defensive coaching staff. Mike Macdonald’s defense finished 1st n points allowed, sacks, and takeaways last year. While many of their best players remain, it’s going to be a challenge to replicate last year’s defensive success with a near overhaul of the defensive coaching staff.

Not to mention they lost an All-Pro linebacker—Patrick Queen—to a division rival.

4

Miami Dolphins

2023 was the “all-in” year for the Dolphins, so regression was always inevitable

Clearly, the Miami Dolphins were “all-in” last offseason, which is why they traded for Jalen Ramsey. After a collapse down the stretch that led to their Wild Card loss, the Dolphins run the risk of missing the playoffs entirely this season due to a number of player departures.

When you have two stars on the interior in defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and guard Robert Hunt leaving for major contracts elsewhere, it’s really hard to achieve the success of the previous season. Miami will also have Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb returning from season-ending lower body injuries, so it will take time for that defense to come close to returning to form.

While the Dolphins did sign reinforcements through free agency to help their defensive line, the biggest issue that wasn’t addressed was their offense, specifically down the stretch.

Despite finishing as the second-best offense in football, they averaged 15 points per game in the final four contests, while losing three straight to end the season. Miami extended Tua Tagovailoa, while adding very minimal talent to an offense that had a complete collapse in the final month of the 2023 season and is severely lacking in depth everywhere but running back.

5

Denver Broncos

Their roster is so depleted it could be the worst in the NFL in 2024

There aren’t really any expectations for the Denver Broncos in 2024, except that they will only be worse than they were last season. Just a year ago, the Broncos appeared to be “all-in” after acquiring Sean Payton to become their next head coach, with Russell Wilson under center. Even though they weren’t bad, the team decided they needed to start from scratch with the roster.

After the Broncos cut Russell Wilson despite a record-breaking dead cap hit, it was clear this team was embracing a rebuild. The Broncos clearly regressed by avoiding paying some of their best players, preparing to enter the season with a much younger roster.

This isn’t as drastic of a regression as the other four teams, as they all reached the playoffs last season. But, it’s still a safe bet that the Broncos will be one of the worst teams in football this season, and could be in for the Shedeur Sanders sweepstakes.

All stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference and Spotrac.

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