What is driving Rayo Vallecano’s unlikely European push?

With a strong possibility that the top eight in LaLiga this season will all be rewarded with European football, Rayo Vallecano, currently 6th, are in a great position to go on and bring either Europa or Conference League football to Vallecas next term.

Rayo have only qualified for Europe once previously, and that was only on Fair play grounds back in the 1999/00 season when they finished 9th. They went on to progress through five rounds in the UEFA Cup before being knocked out by LaLiga rivals Alaves that season, but only once since then have they even managed to finish in the top half of the Spanish top flight.

While there were periods during Andoni Iraola’s successful spell when the Vallecas faithful was dreaming of Europe, even the now Bournemouth boss failed to finish higher than 11th during his two years in LaLiga with Rayo.

Iraola’s exit in 2023, somewhat predictably sparked a downturn in the club’s fortunes, with Iñigo Perez ultimately replacing Iraola’s successor Francisco, and the young coach just about guided Rayo to safety last term with a 17th place finish.

With limited investment in the squad, expectations were low heading into the 2024/25 campaign. They looked obvious bottom-six, if not bottom-three candidates back in August, yet we head into March with Rayo in the top six, already just three points shy of their 38-point haul from last term, and currently on course for their best ever season.

Iñigo Perez building on Iraola’s success & forging his own reputation

Comparisons between Iñigo Perez and Andoni Iraola are inevitable given Perez was previously Iraola’s assistant in Vallecas, and would have followed his boss to Bournemouth in 2023 were it not for a failed UK work permit application.

Like Iraola, Perez’s formative years in football came in the Basque Country as a player with Athletic Club, and like Iraola, his break into football management came early in his mid 30s.

However, whereas Iraola endured a difficult spell in Cyprus and more productive periods in the Spanish second tier with Mirandes and Rayo before getting his shot at the top level, Perez was thrown straight into the deep-end of a LaLiga relegation battle when he took the Rayo job last February.

While he initially favoured a more cautious and less exciting brand of football than his former boss when he steered the Madrid club to safety last term, similarities between Iraola’s Rayo and Perez’s side have been very evident this season.

While subtle differences can certainly be found, and Iraola’s brand of ‘organised chaos’ was perhaps slightly bolder than Perez’s, there are a number of key metrics (stats via Fbref) where the similarities are striking.

In his final season at Rayo (2022/23), Iraola’s men ranked within one place of Perez’s 24/25 side’s current position in terms of possession, pass completion, progressive passes, shots per game and goals per game.

Under the current boss, they have continued to take on lots of shots from further out than most sides. They are also not afraid to play longer balls or crosses into the penalty area, with Rayo currently ranking 3rd in LaLiga for attempted passes of 30+ yards, having ranked 1st in Iraola’s final season.

Solid defence the key ingredient

Rayo are averaging 1.40 points per game this season, a slight improvement on their averages of 1.11 and 1.29 in their two campaigns under Iraola, and a significant hike on their return of 1.00 last term.

With their attacking strengths and weaknesses loosely similar to previous years, improvements at the back have been key to the successful campaign that Rayo are having.

As was the case last season, centre-back Florian Lejeune has clocked up more minutes than any of their other outfielders. The Frenchman has marshalled the back four, starting every game having only missed one last season, and his strong central defensive partnership with Abdul Mumin has given Perez’s side a really strong base from which to build.

Around them though, there have been changes. Perez made a big call early this season, by favouring Andrei Ratiu over Ivan Balliu at right-back. Only two players registered more minutes in LaLiga for Rayo last season than Balliu, but Ratiu has more than repaid his coach’s faith, with the 26-year-old Romanian performing well and starting virtually every game.

It’s a similar story at left-back, although Pacha Espino’s early-season injury did play some role in Pep Chavarria’s ability to take the position.

Rayo have also been able to depend on one of the most impressive goalkeepers in LaLiga this season. Augusto Batalla has successfully filled the void left by Stole Dimitrievski who joined Valencia last summer. The 28-year-old has the third highest save percentage in the Spanish top flight (of those with 10+ starts), while only five keepers have conceded fewer goals per 90 minutes.

Goals coming from different sources, in the absence of a convincing striker

The glaring weakness in this Rayo Vallecano side remains the absence of anything like a convincing striker. Sergio Camello has largely been trusted with the role, but he has only managed three goals in 21 LaLiga appearances, to go with the three he scored from 31 outings last term.

The return of €11m man Raul de Tomas in September 2022 has not worked out, and that is putting it very mildly, with little explanation as to what is going on with the striker who reportedly doesn’t even train, let alone feature in matchday squads.

With Camello currently injured, midfielder Randy Nteka is filling in up front, and the continuation of a problem that has been Rayo’s Achilles Heel even since Iraola’s days makes it all the more remarkable that they are pushing for European qualification.

While none of their players have netted more than the four goals of winger Jorge de Frutos in LaLiga this term, they have at least had contributions from a number of different sources.

Eight different Rayo players have scored at least two league goals, compared to only seven at Real Madrid for example, so Perez has largely managed to overcome the problem at number nine, by relying on the likes of De Frutos, Alvaro Garcia and Isi Palazon when it comes to attacking inspiration.

The Rayo Vallecano boss will be hoping that trend can continue and with seven remaining home fixtures, all of which are against teams currently below them in the table, the prospect of European football at Vallecas next season is no longer a pipe dream.