France vs. Italy – Odds and Predictions

France welcome Italy to Paris in a battle of the giants on the first matchday of the 2024-25 Nations League. This head-turning fixture thrusts both sides into instant competitive action, as Group A2 kicks off with a real headliner. Both sides had relatively underwhelming Euro 2024 campaigns, and will be more than eager to get back to winning ways straight away at the Parc des Princes on Friday evening.

This match-up will be the teams’ first competitive meeting in 16 years, since the Italians prevailed 2-0 in the Euro 2008 group stage. That said, Les Bleus have won all three friendlies between the two powerhouses since.

Outcome

France backed to beat Italy

Friday’s hosts are looking to bounce back after their Euro 2024 campaign ended at the semi-final stage thanks to a 2-1 defeat to eventual champions Spain. Prior to that, France played out a largely forgettable tournament, with slow (yet successful) encounters against Portugal, Belgium, and a group stage that saw somewhat laboured outings against Poland, the Netherlands and Austria.

Although murmurs have been noticeable with the continuation of Didier Deschamps’ managerial tenure, the recent resurgence in Kylian Mbappe’s form at new club Real Madrid could be enough to beat an equally, if not more, languid Italy who seriously under-performed in this summer’s tournament.

The Italians too, are signalling a time of change – bringing in Atalanta’s Marco Brescianini and Leicester City defender Caleb Okoli for their first call-ups. The visitors may see this as a time to experiment and restore a clearer identity in their play.

Over/Under

Estimations are mixed for this encounter

Neither side showed particular scoring prowess at the Euros, and this trend could filter over into this game. With similar likeliness to be either over or under the 2.5 goal threshold, that feeling of change and a fresh start could be vital.

Can Mbappe lead the French line with new energy fresh off of the back of scoring his first LaLiga goal? Or, can Italy re-instill some sort of attacking impetus into their side after the Euros’ damning 2-0 defeat to Switzerland marked a torrid tournament?

Italy only reaped one victory (against Albania) and saw three Italian goals all together. Ultimately, they enter this fixture with a point to prove. Knocked out at the round of 16 stage by the Swiss, Italy’s performance fell well short of expectations, especially considering the talent at their disposal and the pedigree of their manager, Luciano Spalletti. Injuries played a part in their underwhelming performance, yet the fact remains that Italy were uninspired, unconvincing, and lacked creation throughout the tournament.

For France, their campaign was equally pitiful at times. In fact, Les Bleus didn’t have a goal scored in open play by a French player until Randal Kolo Muani’s header against Spain. They relied on two own goals, and an Mbappe penalty before that, as well as a shootout victory over Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal.

Goalscorers

French offer more going forward

Along with France’s potentially restored faith in Mbappe, there is also the new addition of Michael Olise to look forward to, too. Alongside Antoine Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele, those two are seemingly Les Bleus best offensive options. For Griezmann, he’ll likely arrive in the place of Adrien Rabiot. The former stalwart in the Deschamp set-up wasn’t included due to not finding a club after his Juventus contract expired. Griezmann could offer some more creation, yet will still battle Warren Zaire-Emery for that position.

For Italy, the midfield influence has been highlighted, with Lorenzo Pellegrini and Sandro Tonali backed to be in the mix. However, this may be down to the absences of Nico Barella and Gianluca Scamacca, both of whom are out with injury. The starting XI should have a fairly new look to it, with the likes of Destiny Udogie and Mateo Retegui playing from the start.

Prediction

France to win in front of home crowd

Unless Italy can conjure something, out of these two regrouping sides, it seems that France are more likely to take the victory. Mbappe has confidence restored after a slow start to life at Real Madrid, Michael Olise offers an injection of intrigue, and mixed with a home crowd as well as a supporting cast looking to right the wrongs of the summer – Deschamps side could be a formidable foe for Luciano Spaletti’s Italy.

That said, while the Azzurri are also looking to bounce back, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them notch a goal, at least. Especially, if new players are starting or finding involvement from the bench. They could surprise France, but it’s not likely.

Prediction: France 2-1 Italy

Odds retrieved from Bet365, correct as of 04/09/24