Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Predictions and Betting Tips for Champions League Game

Real Madrid

are clear favourites heading into a potentially thrilling UEFA Champions League

Last 16 first leg encounter against city rivals Atlético Madrid

at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium on Tuesday night (Central European Time).

It makes sense that Real are favourites, but there are strong reasons to suspect that they will not have things all their own way on a night that will draw attention from far outside the Spanish capital.

As the first table above shows, Real Madrid are 1.95 (19/20) favourites to secure a first-leg lead this week. Atleti are 4.2 (16/5) to clinch a shock away win, while the Draw is 3.7 (27/10).

Do Real Madrid really deserve to be as short as they are? Anybody looking at the current La Liga

standings would have to conclude that, no, objectively, they do not.

Atlético Madrid are currently in second place, behind Barcelona, on 56 points from 26 matches. Having played the same number of matches, Real Madrid are two points behind their city rivals.

Then there are the head-to-head encounters between the two teams this season. The first clash — a home game for Atlético Madrid — ended in a 1-1 draw last September. The second meeting, less than a month ago – the game took place on February 8 — also ended in a 1-1 scoreline, this time at the same Santiago Bernabeu venue that will be used this week.

Is it really fair for Atletico to be ranked as such outsiders, given that they have avoided defeat in both league meetings against Real this season, while also being above their rivals in the league table?

Team news also hands Atletico another potential advantage. Real Madrid continue to be below-strength in defence, where center-back Eder Militao and right-back Dani Carvajal are long-term injury absentees.

Latest reports suggest that France international Aurelien Tchouameni may once again be forced into action as a makeshift center-back. The former Bordeaux and Monaco midfielder is applying himself as well as he can in the role but, by his own admission, center-back is a position where he does not enjoy playing.

A further blow for Real is that Jude Bellingham is suspended. The absence of the England international – so often a match-winner or decisive contributor for Carlo Ancelotti’s side – clearly reduces the hosts’ chances of winning.

Related

Champions League Preview: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Projected Starting Lineups, Where to Watch in US

The Madrid Derby is going continental as Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid prepare to face off in the Round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League.

Best bet

There is no way we would back Real Madrid at an odds-on price. They may win; they certainly have the talent to do so. But their price looks too short, given their inferior team news, and the results that Atlético Madrid have obtained this season.

The draw or an away win are more appealing selections. To have both outcomes on your side, however, it would be worth looking towards other markets.

Atlético Your Double Chance Selection

We previewed the Real Madrid vs Atlético derby in La Liga last month, and successfully predicted that Atletico would avoid defeat.

The market we used to back Atlético Madrid on that occasion was the Double Chance market. We are happy to do the same thing here.

The Double Chance market works very simply: you pick two outcomes, and make a profit should either of the two outcomes that you picked occur.

There are only ever three options in this market: 1) a win for the home team or a draw; 2) a win for the away team or a draw; and 3) a win for the home team or a win for the away team.

Best bet

Atletico Madrid-Draw in the Double Chance market is available at a best price of 1.91 (10/11). With this selection, you will make a profit if either of the two outcomes you are backing – an Atletico Madrid win or a Draw – occur.

We are very happy to make this our main selection on the game. Time and again this season, Atletico Madrid have shown they are the equal of their city neighbours, both in general in La Liga, and in head-to-head clashes.

• Top selection – Atletico Madrid-Draw in the Double Chance market (1.91)

Griezmann the Smart Goalscorer Pick

It is hardly a surprise that Kylian Mbappé is the favourite in the Anytime Goalscorer market, and it would be no surprise if the France international gets on the scoresheet. The 26-year-old has been in formidable form over the past three months, and will be the main danger man for the hosts.

At longer odds, however, we think his teammate, Rodrygo, is a more interesting selection. The Brazil international has scored four times in eight Champions League games this season, at a rate of a goal every 142 minutes.

Also of interest are Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann. The duo are expected to pair up to lead Atletico’s attack, and will relish the opportunity to take on Real Madrid’s depleted defence. Alvarez has scored six Champions League goals this season at a rate of a goal every 97 minutes. Griezmann has also netted six times, at a rate of a goal every 96 minutes.

Best bet

The Atletico Madrid frontmen are the contenders to focus on. Alvarez and Griezmann have been outstanding in front of goal in the Champions League this season, and will be confident they can get the better – at least at times in the game — of Real Madrid’s below-strength back four.

We recommend you split the stakes that you have allocated for this market across the pair of them. That way, given the odds available, you will make a profit if either of them scores.

• Top selection – Julian Alvarez in the Anytime Goalscorer market (4.1)
• Top selection – Antoine Griezmann in the Anytime Goalscorer market (4.33)

Odds from Oddschecker – Correct as of 03/03/2025

1:26

Related

Fabrizio Romano: Update on Real Madrid’s Interest in Arsenal Star William Saliba

William Saliba has been one of the Premier League’s most consistent stars in recent seasons and that has tempted interest in his services