Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm WNBA Odds and Predictions

The regular season is over, and the 2024 WNBA playoffs have officially arrived. One of the games on today’s slate features the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces (27-13 SU, 19-20-1 ATS) hosting the Seattle Storm (25-15 SU, 19-21 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge in this WNBA playoff matchup and why.

Aces vs. Storm – Season Stats & Betting Trends

Las Vegas is the favorite vs. Seattle

The Aces weren’t playing like defending champions coming out of the midseason Olympic break. When league play resumed, they dropped a 79-67 decision to the New York Liberty and followed that up with two losses in their next three contests, dropping their regular season record to 17-11.

Since that hiccup, Las Vegas has posted 10 wins in its last 12 games, finishing two games ahead of Seattle for the No. 4 spot. The Aces enter this tilt riding a five-game winning streak, including a 98-84 victory over the Dallas Wings in the season finale — a game in which they rested four starters.

Megan Gustafson, who averages just 3.7 points per game, led the offense with 24 points and seven rebounds on 9-of-16 shooting from the field. Tiffany Hayes added 21 points and five assists while converting three of her six attempts from beyond the arc. Sydney Colson contributed 13 points, five rebounds and four assists. The game was tied at 30 after the opening quarter as both teams combined to shoot 11-for-13 from 3-point range.

Las Vegas took control of the game in the second quarter, outscoring Dallas 30-15 to take a 60-45 advantage into halftime. The Aces extended the lead to 20 points (88-68) after three quarters. Dallas did cut the deficit to nine points with 4:47 left in regulation, but could not get any closer.

On the other hand, like the Aces, the Storm got off to a poor start in the second half of the season as well. In fact, they posted six losses in a nine-game stretch, which put them at 20-14. However, Seattle has turned it around, having won five of its previous six games. This includes an 89-70 victory over the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday night.

Nneka Ogwumike scored a team-high 17 points and grabbed eight rebounds. Skylar Diggins-Smith and Mercedes Russell scored 14 points each. Sami Whitcomb and Gabby Williams finished with 11 and 10 points, respectively.

Seattle came out swinging early and often in this contest. The Storm jumped out to a 35-14 lead after the first quarter thanks to shooting 15-of-22 from the field. Although the Mercury did cut the lead to 12 points at the break (43-31), the outcome was never in doubt. Seattle, which has the league’s fourth-best defense, held Phoenix to 38.1 percent shooting overall and just 23.1 percent from distance.

The Aces took three of the four regular-season meetings between these teams. Will that trend continue, or can the Storm find a way to derail Las Vegas’s bid for a three-peat?

Now that we have set the stage for this pivotal matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Aces vs. Storm Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks and analysis

Spread

Having won each of their last five outings, the Aces are a seven-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Aces are 9-0-1 in their last 10 outings overall.
• Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last five “home” games.
• The Aces have covered the spread four times in their previous five matchups against Seattle.
• Meanwhile, the Storm are 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• Seattle is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road contests.
• In their last 12 matchups against Las Vegas, the Storm are 3-9 against the spread.
• Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-7)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 163.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Aces’ last eight games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed five times in Las Vegas’s previous seven home games.
• In the Aces’ last seven matchups against Seattle, the UNDER total has cashed in five times.
• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Storm’s last eight contests.
• The UNDER total is 4-1 in Seattle’s previous five road outings.
• In the Storm’s last six matchups against Las Vegas, the UNDER total has prevailed four times.
• Prediction: UNDER 163.5 points

Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of Bet365)

The reigning WNBA scoring leader, Jewell Loyd, paced the Storm’s offense this season, making her the key player to watch for the road team. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points.

Do Loyd’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• During the season, Loyd averaged 19.7 points per contest.
• In the three previous meetings against the Aces this season, Loyd put up 18.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per contest on 30 percent shooting overall and 33.3 percent from 3-point range.
• Loyd has played against Western Conference teams 17 times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 19.1 points per outing.
• In 19 road contests, the Seattle Storm guard averaged 18.6 points per game.
• Over her last 10 outings, Loyd has averaged 17.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jewell Loyd OVER 18.5 points

A’ja Wilson was the heart and soul of the Aces this season. And being that she was recently named the WNBA’s unanimous MVP, she is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points.

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this WNBA matchup.

• During the season, Wilson averaged a league-leading 26.9 points per game.
• In the previous four meetings against Seattle, Wilson put up 25.3 points and 11.8 rebounds per contest with a conversion rate of 47.3 percent, her second-lowest shooting percentage against any opponent.
• In 19 games against Western Conference teams this regular season, she averaged 28.9 points per game.
• In 19 home games this year, the Aces center averaged 25.9 points per game.
• Over her last five outings, Wilson has averaged 27.1 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Prediction: A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 points

Aces vs. Storm Final Picks

• The Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7) (OddShark.com)
• Over/Under: UNDER 163.5 points (OddsShark.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Jewell Loyd OVER 18.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 points