Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds and Predictions

The second half of the 2024 WNBA season is in full swing, and one of the games on tap from today’s slate features the

Las Vegas Aces

(17-9 SU, 10-16 ATS) hosting the

Minnesota Lynx

(20-8 SU, 17-11 ATS) in a battle between the No. 1 scoring team and the league’s top-rated defensive squad.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge in this matchup and why.

Aces vs. Lynx – Season Stats & Betting Trends

Las Vegas is the slight favorite vs. Minnesota

After a mediocre 6-6 start, the Aces finished the first half of the season with 10 wins over their next 12 games. When league play resumed, they were defeated by the

New York Liberty

79-67 but bounced back with an 87-71 win over the

Los Angeles Sparks

.

In that contest, A’ja Wilson rose to the occasion at both ends of the floor once again. She finished with 34 points and 13 rebounds. She also tallied five steals and two blocked shots. It was the 17th time this season in which the MVP front-runner finished with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, surpassing the record she set back in 2023.

On the other side of the narrative, the Lynx have produced six wins across their last 10 outings following a 13-4 start. This includes consecutive wins in a home-and-home series against the

Washington Mystics

. Napheesa Collier led the team in scoring in both of those victories.

After scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in the first win, she followed that up with an impressive 30-point outing when the teams played two days later. In that win, she shot 13-of-16 from the field while tallying four rebounds, three assists, and two steals. This is certainly a positive sign for Minnesota, as Collier had missed five consecutive games with a foot injury before the midseason break.

Now that we have set the stage for this pivotal Western Conference matchup let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Aces vs. Lynx Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks and analysis

Spread

Despite dropping two of their last three contests, the Aces enter this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Aces are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight Wednesday night games.
• Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
• Meanwhile, the Lynx are 4-0 ATS the last four times they played on three or more days of rest.
• Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road contests.
• In their last 21 matchups against the defending champs, the Lynx are 14-6-1 against the spread.
• Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+2.5)

Over/Under

This matchup’s projected over/under total is 166.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 10 times in the Aces’ last 14 games following a straight-up win.
• The UNDER total is 6-2 in Las Vegas’s last eight contests against Western Conference opponents.
• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Lynx’s last 10 outings overall.
• The UNDER total is 7-3 in Minnesota’s last 10 matchups against teams in the Western Conference.
• Prediction: UNDER 166.5 points

Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of Bet365)

In addition to her 30-point outing against the Mystics, Napheesa Collier leads Minnesota in scoring, rebounding, and steals. Given that fact, she is the key player to watch for the road team. She currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points.

Do Collier’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• During the season, Collier has been averaging 20.3 points per contest.
• In the previous pair of meetings against the Aces this season, Collier has averaged 16.0 points and 9.5 rebounds per contest on just 34.5 percent shooting from the field and 33.3 percent from 3-point range.
• Collier has played against Western Conference teams 13 times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 21.6 points per outing.
• In 10 road contests, the Minnesota Lynx forward averages 21.7 points per game.
• Over her last 10 outings, Collier has averaged 19.8 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 18.5 points

On the heels of an impressive 34-point, 13-rebound effort in which she excelled at both ends of the floor, A’ja Wilson is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this WNBA matchup.

• During the season, Wilson has averaged 27.3 points per game.
• In the previous two meetings against Minnesota, Wilson has put up 28.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per contest on 48.8 percent shooting overall and 33.3 percent from deep.
• Wilson has suited up against Western Conference teams 14 times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 29.0 points per game.
• In 15 home contests, the Aces center averages 26.2 points per game.
• Over her last 10 outings, Wilson has averaged 28.0 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup seven times during that stretch.

Prediction: A’ja Wilson OVER 26.5 points

Aces vs. Lynx Final Picks

• The Spread: Minnesota Lynx (+2.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: UNDER 166.5 points (OddsShark.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Napheesa Collier OVER 18.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: A’ja Wilson OVER 26.5 points

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