Every Champions League Club’s Chance of Winning Competition Calculated [2024/25]

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are looking to win it for the first time since the 2018/19 season, record winners Real Madrid are looking to add to their tally and Arsenal, under the guidance of Mikel Arteta, are also in the mix too – but what are every Champions League side’s chances of lifting silverware in Munich?

This season saw the start of a new era of European football. All three competitions – the Champions League, the Europa League and the Europa Conference League – all began with a 36-team league stage. But now, the knockout play-off round, the business end of the tournament, some would say, is upon us.

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Opta have run all 24 teams remaining in the 2024/25 Champions League through a simulation on 10,000 occasions to analyse each side’s chances – from Manchester City to Celtic – of reaching each stage as well as predicting who will come out on top come the end of May 2025.

Every 2024/25 Champions League Play-Off & Round of 16 Fixtures

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Straight through the final 16 teams – by virtue of finishing in the top eight of the new-look league phase of Europe’s top table – are Liverpool, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa and Lille.

Eight spots remain up for grabs, however. As such, two-legged play-off fixtures are being utilised to decipher who the aforementioned eight teams will lock horns with in order to secure passage into this season’s quarter-finals.

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An all-France clash of Stade Brest and Paris Saint-Germain is the first of eight play-off match-ups. The winner of Sporting CP – who beat Pep Guardiola’s men 4-1 in the league phase – and Borussia Dortmund will play one of Premier League outfit Aston Villa or Lille, who play their domestic football in Ligue 1.

The biggest encounter of them all is between Manchester City and Real Madrid. One of the two will be crashing out at the play-off stage, while the victor will face either Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen in the Round of 16.

Celtic and Bayern Munich are set to go toe to toe, while one of Thiago Motta-led Juventus or PSV Eindhoven will have the small matter of either Arsenal or Inter Milan in the Round of 16. The winner of Feyenoord vs AC Milan will also learn a similar fate.

Another interesting tie is that of Sporting CP’s clash with Bundesliga side Borussia Dortmund, led by the newly-appointed Niko Kovac. Whoever reigns triumphant over two legs will face, depending on the draw, either Aston Villa or LOSC Lille.

Every Champions League Side’s Chances of Winning

Premier League duo remain the two frontrunners

Each team will learn about their Round of 16 opponents on 21 February 2025 – but what is every club’s chance of securing passage into the upcoming rounds? Only 16 teams – eight of which are already confirmed – will progress into the next round.

From there, the eight winners will venture into the quarter-finals and so on and so forth, leading up to the all-crucial final at the Allianz Arena, Munich, at the end of May 2025. But which teams have the best chance of getting there? Let’s take a look at Opta’s calculations.

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Inter Milan, one of the eight teams to have won the Champions League-back-to-back, have been given a 48% chance of being one of the remaining four teams in the competition and a 27.7% chance of reaching the final in the German capital.

The Nerazzurri (14.5%) have been calculated to have a 14.5% chance of winning and only two teams have better odds: Premier League duo Arsenal and Liverpool. After storming through the league phase, the latter are heavy favourites – 24.6%.

Based in north London, the Gunners have never lifted Champions League glory but are looking to buck that trend this campaign. Opta, in aid of securing silverware under Arteta’s watchful eye, have given them a 16.6% chance to do so.

Despite being the reigning champions, Real Madrid’s tough play-off fixture – and ponderous run of form – meant that Opta have insisted they have just a 4.4% chance of retaining their status as champions of Europe. Manchester City (3.2%) and Bayern Munich (2.1%) have even less of a chance.

In terms of outright winners of this season’s iteration of Europe’s premier club competition, Slot’s men are the clear favourites – and, according to Opta’s calculations, have a 24.6% chance of adding another Champions League to their silverware cabinet.

Arsenal are just behind on 16.6%, while Inter Milan – runners-up in 2022/23 – are third favourites (14.5%). At the other end of the spectrum, Borussia Dortmund, Feyenoord and Celtic have a 0.1% chance. Calculations suggest that Stade Brest have a 0% chance.

All statistics per Opta Analyst – correct as of 11/02/25