Data Experts Predict Euro 2024 Winners

With the Champions League having recently been placed in the memory, attention has already turned to next week with the long-awaited commencement of EURO 2024. Over the next 10 days – as it has been in the previous 10 days, too – pub, school, and workplace discourse has fluttered around the tournament’s hopes, predictions, and realities.

But while long gone are the days of Paul the Octopus – who correctly predicted that Spain would win the 2010 World Cup, along with amassing an overall record of 12 out of 14 correct results, bringing about a success rate of roughly 85.7% – companies far and wide are now taking full advantage of technology to try to foresee the future.

Although the definitive answer to who will win this year’s European Championships won’t be set in stone until July 14th, the Opta Supercomputer garnered plenty of attention during the domestic league season and, once again, has not been shy about putting its (robotic) neck on the line ahead of the summer. The supercomputer has simulated Euro 2024 10,000 times and confirmed its pre-tournament percentages, and the results make for interesting reading.

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10 Croatia

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 2%

Croatia’s relatively short history in football is an intriguing one. Since their independence in 1991, they have demanded attention from the more well-known footballing nations. Since 1994, in just less than 30 years since waking from their fountainhead, the Kockasti have qualified for every major tournament except for Euro 2000 and the 2010 World Cup. On the world stage, Croatia has finished second once (2018) and third on two occasions (1998, 2022), securing three World Cup medals.

The Balkan nation has boasted a plethora of exciting players over the years – notwithstanding current superstars such as Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, and the soon-to-be 39-year-old Luka Modric. However, after several near-misses over the previous decade, Opta’s supercomputer clearly holds the opinion that Croatia’s golden generation is dead and buried.

9 Denmark

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 2.2%

As the historical reference goes, when one empire falls, another rises. This is evidenced by Croatia’s golden generation moving aside for Denmark. Winners of the competition in 1992, the Danes have recently shown that underdog status is returning to the fore, and if one thing is for certain, they won’t be pushovers when they do battle in Germany.

Kasper Hjulmand and his men managed to reach the third-place play-offs in EURO 2020, and have proven their class in recent outings, losing just one of their last ten. Rasmus Hojlund has had glimmers of being a talismanic frontman whilst plying his trade for Manchester United, and he will be joined by the level-headed nature of Christian Eriksen, Thomas Delaney, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.

8 Belgium

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 4.7%

It was only two years ago that Belgium sat at the top of the FIFA World Ranking. But while projections say one thing, performances when it matters most indicate the complete opposite. This summer represents potentially the last chance for players like Romelu Lukaku and Jan Vertonghen to get their hands on a major European trophy.

But the former is a whole other monster when he pulls on the Red Devils’ shirt, and with Manchester City duo Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku joining the Roma striker, there’s every possibility that Belgium will make it all the way over the next two months. No blemishes on their qualifying record, with just four goals conceded and 22 scored, proves just how good Domenico Tedesco’s men can be when they want to be.

7 Italy

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 5%

It feels all too harsh for a supercomputer to predict Italy to finish this low, especially since they were the winners last time out. But, having only just made it into an automatic spot after Ukraine were denied a controversial penalty in the dying embers of their match in November, there appears to be a hangover from the highs that Roberto Mancini guided them through.

Although recent form has been impressive, Luciano Spaletti oversaw two defeats to nations higher up in Opta’s projections in Spain and England, which could explain why they aren’t tipped to retain their title. As so often the case with these competitions, they are decided by the crunch ties – clearly, technology fancies other countries to nip the bud in Le Azzuri’s title defence.

6 Netherlands

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 5.1%

The Netherlands, under iconic former manager Ronald Koeman, look to be a serious prospect on the continent this year. With a perfect blend between old and new talent, experienced and excitable, The Oranje will be counting on the likes of Georginio Wijnaldum, Frenkie De Jong, captain Virgil Van Dijk, and Memphis Depay to pull them through the nitty-gritty ties, while dangerous youngsters such as Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons, and Jeremie Frimpong bring an element of surprise to this summer’s coveted competition.

As preparations for Germany continue, the Netherlands have endured a mixed run of form. 4-0 and 6-0 scorelines against Scotland and Gibraltar show they’re worth their weight in gold, but 2-1 defeats to the hosts and France may also tell the narrative that, while they might reach the quarter-finals, anything more than that and they will be dubbed the summer’s surprise package.

5 Portugal

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 9.2%

Portugal turned Group J into their playground during qualifying, scoring a staggering 36 goals and conceding just two as they collected all 30 points. It is fitting form for the nation that also boasts the ultimate European Championship player in Cristiano Ronaldo who, despite being 39-years-old, still has it. He scored 35 times in 31 Saudi Pro League games last term.

Factor in Bruno Fernandes, Joao Cancelo, Bernardo Silva, and even more firepower alongside the all-time top scorer in international football, and the winners of Euro 2016 might be in line for a second tournament triumph.

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4 Spain

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 9.6%

For Manchester City, Rodri notched his 71st consecutive victory in a row, which smashed the Premier League record to all intents and purposes. He is a midfield general and a masterful all-around footballer, and with him in your team, there will always be a decent shot at glory.

Spain will be hoping this comes to fruition in the summer when he links up with Alvaro Morata, Dani Carvajal, Alejandro and Co. Recent triumphs over the likes of Italy, Croatia and Norway show they can handle some of the best teams in Europe, and they come into this tournament three-time winners. Sometimes, history can repeat itself, no matter other teams’ ability.

3 Germany

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 12.4%

Germany head into EURO 2024 under the pressure of two main headlines. Firstly, they are hosts, and that naturally raises expectations. But secondly, their legendary midfielder, Toni Kroos, has recently announced he will hang his boots up after the tournament, and Die Mannschaft will be desperate for him to leave on a high following his sixth Champions League hoist with Real Madrid.

It would be interesting to see exactly what the Supercomputer factors in with their predictions, though. Sure, Leroy Sane is exceptional, Kai Havertz has had a terrific transformation this past term, and Jamal Musiala is capable of producing an individual moment of brilliance which could get a result for them at various flashpoints this summer. But since March 2023, Julian Nagelsmann’s men have won just four of their previous 13 games. He was supposed to kickstart a recovery period, but that hasn’t yet been apparent – although recent wins versus France and The Netherlands mean they shouldn’t be written off just yet.

2 France

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 19.1%

The French firepower is truly terrifying. They have such quality in such high quantities that even their fourth team could launch a fair assault on the continent. Even still, if that’s a bit of an exaggeration, allow Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Greizmann, and William Saliba do all the talking, and onlookers will almost certanly be reminded of Les Bleus’ football brilliance.

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Only a 2-2 draw with Greece on the final matchday prevented Didier Deschamps’ side from notching eight wins from eight games during qualifying, but that small bump won’t phase them in the slightest. After missing out on World Cup glory via the lottery of a penalty shootout against Argentina, France remain the highest ranking European nation, and they will be sure to return to competitive football this summer with a vengeance.

1 England

Chance of winning Euro 2024: 19.9%

Expectation, without fail, always seems to be England’s biggest burden to silverware. Multiple golden generations have passed the nation by without a trophy to show for it. Yet, here they are again, predicted to make it all the way. This is partly down to the longing for a return to 1966, but also, the arrows found in Gareth Southgate’s quiver are genuinely dangerous.

Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, and Phil Foden are tipped to pick up where they left things as runners-up in 2021; Declan Rice brings a personality of calmness to midfield, Jordan Pickford is as good as ever, and the regulars will be joined by the formidable talents of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Jude Bellingham, and Cole Palmer, among many, many others. After nearly 60 years of hurt, is it finally time for football to come home?

The Best of the Rest

For any other nation outside Opta’s final top 10 to make it past the Round of 16, it would go down as a fairytale. Nevertheless, if there was ever a sport that produces magical moments, it’s football. And there are plenty of other countries heading to Germany this summer that will rewrite history.

Any victory for Georgia will be considered a success in their first major tournament, while the Czech Republic have forged a reputation as serial underdogs. Elsewhere, Scotland will look to continue their steady progress as a tournament mainstay; Turkey have the individuals to make a tantalizing team, and Hungary look to be blessed with a fusion of youth. With all the talent heading to the tournament, there could be a few upsets this summer.