Arsenal and Chelsea learn exact chances of Premier League glory as reality check delivered

Arsenal currently top the Premier League table after 13 fixtures, as Chelsea trail them by just six points – and both clubs have been handed the odds of actually going on to win the title come season’s end

Arsenal and Chelsea have been handed their odds of clinching the Premier League title this season by a supercomputer.

It’s good news for the Gunners, who currently lead the standings in the English top flight after 13 matches. Mikel Arteta’s side have been in flying form across 2025/26 thus far, securing nine wins, three draws and just a single defeat following the weekend’s 1-1 stalemate with Enzo Maresca’s Blues.

As a result, Aceodds ‘ supercomputer, BETSiE, has given the north London outfit a 78.4% chance of holding their top spot come season’s end. If they are successful in their endeavours, it would put to bed drought of more than 20 years without tasting the glory of clinching the Premier League.

The last time Arsenal won the league came during Arsene Wenger’s fabled ‘Invincibles’ season of 2003/04, in which, the Gunners didn’t suffer a single league defeat throughout the entire campaign. And while Arteta has come close to restoring glory to north London over the past six years, it’s been a case of close but no cigar time and time again for the Spaniard thus far.

Arsenal managed a second-place finish in 2022/23, trailing Manchester City by just five points. The following season was even closer, as the Gunners missed out on league glory to Pep Guardiola’s side by just two points.

The club also secured a second-place finish last term, albeit, with Arne Slot guiding Liverpool to his first Premier league title, with the club 10 points clear of any danger come May. Chelsea, meanwhile, currently occupy third in the league standings, with seven wins, three draws and three losses from their opening 13.

And while there’s only six points between the west London outfit and their rivals in the north at present, BETSiE has been far less kind with Chelsea’s chances of winning the title this time round. The supercomputer gives the Stamford Bridge elite just a 2.7% chance of glory this season, in a shocking wake-up call for the high-flying Blues.

BETSiE, ran its algorithm to give a 2025/26 Premier League season prediction after an interesting gameweek, where Arsenal and Chelsea drew 1-1. Moises Caicedo was shown a straight red card in the first half of the fixture for a late challenge above the ankle of Mikel Merino.

Despite being reduced to 10, Chelsea took the lead after the interval with Trevoh Chalobah’s header from a corner looping over David Raya and into the back of the net. Merino managed to square matters for the visitors with a header of his own, however, to ensure his side made the trip back to north London with at least a point for their efforts.

The supercomputer simulated the league season 100,000 times, taking into account all match results from pre-season and the current season, projecting the campaign based on both pre-season expectations, difficulty of fixtures and expected goals (xG) earned both for and against during the term.

It now also integrates financial data and player value from Transfermarkt to provide a more nuanced understanding of team capability and potential performance variations. Based on the aforementioned simulations, Arsenal are projected to finish 14.3 points ahead of Chelsea, who are in-turn expected to finish fourth.

Elsewhere, Manchester City have a 12.4% chance of winning the league. As for Tottenham, BETSiE pins the Lilywhites at finishing in 11th, while Wolves, Burnley and Leeds United are tipped to face relegation.

Up next for Arsenal is a return to the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, as they prepare to play host to Brentford. They then turn their attention to a trip to the Midlands come Saturday, December 6, to face Unai Emery’s Aston Villa.

Chelsea, meanwhile, face Leeds at Elland Road on Wednesday evening, before making the trip to the south coast on Saturday to face Bournemouth.

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Sky has slashed the price of its Essential TV and Sky Sports bundle for the 2025/26 season, saving members £336 and offering more than 1,400 live matches across the Premier League, EFL and more.

Sky will show at least 215 live Premier League games this season, an increase of up to 100 more.