Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds

The Champions League is set to return next week, with anticipation building over the 36 clubs battling it out to win the trophy – and the Opta supercomputer has predicted who is most likely to win the tournament after 10,000 simulations.

Paris Saint-Germain are the holders, with Luis Enrique’s men stunning 5-0 win over Inter Milan back in June giving them the trophy for the first time, and they’ll be battling to do so again this time around. However, they aren’t predicted to win the trophy – and GIVEMESPORT tells you who the favourites are, as well as the outside chancers.

36th-21st

There are some huge teams who haven’t even made the cut for the top 20 most likely teams to win the tournament. Dutch giants Ajax are naturally a massive club, but they have struggled on both the continental and domestic scene in recent times and aren’t fancied to win the trophy.

Other big clubs include Galatasaray, despite their huge outlay on new players in the summer, which includes the arrivals of Leroy Sane and Victor Osimhen, as well as Marseille, Villarreal and Monaco, who largely struggle when it comes to reaching the finals – Monaco were the last to break that mold in 2004, where they were defeated.

Elsewhere, newcomers Kairat Almaty are at the bottom of the pile, alongside other minnows such as Pafos, Qarabag and Bodo/Glimt. In fact, every team but Norwegian side Bodo failed to win the trophy in any of the 10,000 simulations.

20th-16th

Into the 20 teams who are likely to win the trophy, then. Atalanta head up the pile, being ranked at having just a 0.6 percent chance of winning the Champions League, with the furthest they have gone being the quarter-finals in 2019/20.

Fellow Italian side and two-time winners Juventus join them in 19th, given they face tough away trips to Real Madrid and Monaco, as well as hosting Dortmund, Sporting and Benfica.

Atletico Madrid have yet to win the Champions League and that will continue with their 0.6 percent chance of winning the accolade, whilst Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting finish off the rankings with just 0.7 and 0.8 percentage chances of winning the Champions League respectively – just 70 and 80 of the simulations had them lifting the trophy.

15th-11th

Club Brugge are arguably the biggest surprise in this category. The Belgian outfit have tough away trips to Atalanta, Bayern Munich and Sporting, as well as home clashes against Monaco, Barcelona, Arsenal and Marseille – but they won ~90 of the 10,000 simulations that Opta ran, which would make them the first club in Belgium to win the tournament after losing the 1978 final vs Liverpool.

They are joined by Borussia Dortmund, who reached the final in 2024 and also boast a 0.9 percent change of winning the tournament, and Thomas Frank’s Tottenham Hotspur side.

Spurs hadn’t won a major honour in 17 years before their Europa League win last season but continental success last time out and a flurry of summer signings see them winning the title in ~110 simulations.

Rounding off the rest of the bracket are Napoli and Benfica, who boast 1.4 and 1.7 percentage chances of being successful in the final in Budapest at the end of May.

10th-6th

Into the top 10, and Newcastle United are given a bigger chance than some massive European clubs. The Magpies have a relatively easy run in the league phase, when taking away their home time vs Barcelona to open – seeing Benfica, Athletic Bilbao and PSV Eindhoven visit St. James’ Park before away trips to Union Saint-Gilloise, Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen and current champions Paris Saint-Germain on a 1.7 percent change of winning the trophy.

They’re joined by multiple-time European champions Inter Milan, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid – with three, six and fifteen wins between themselves respectively. Real’s inclusion outside of the top five is quite a shock, though they face the likes of Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City and Benfica.

With that in mind, Chelsea are sixth, and Enzo Maresca’s men have a six percent chance of winning the tournament, with ~600 calculations seeing them win the trophy.

5th-1st

Last season’s semi-finalists Barcelona are in fifth, being given an 8.4 percent chance of winning the trophy after missing out narrowly last season.

Pep Guardiola’s City side are in fourth, being given the same amount of chance as his former club in Spain, as they chase the trophy after a two-year hiatus from their win in Istanbul.

Last season’s winners Paris Saint-Germain are in third, being given a 12.1 percent chance of winning the title – though their run is incredible tough.

Away trips to Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen, Athletic Bilbao and Sporting are followed up by games at home against Atalanta, Bayern, Tottenham and Newcastle – with all but one of those sides bring in the top 20 ‘favoured’ sides to win.

That leaves Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side in second, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them win the trophy in 1,600 of its simulations, as the Gunners aim to end their half-decade wait without silverware.

And it will push Liverpool into top spot. Arne Slot was knocked out by PSG last season in the round of 16, but the simulation sees them win around 2,040 of their simulations. The Premier League title win last season and an incredible transfer market which has seen Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak join the club means that their stock has risen, and according to Opta, it’s the Reds who will be fending others off for the biggest trophy in club football.

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