State of the Roster, Transfer Priorities

The 2024 season for the Philadelphia Union was nothing short of bewilderment.

On the surface level, most of the key pieces from the group that had been among the best in the league for the last few years remained. Most of which are still in their prime, while Tai Baribo took over for Julian Carranza’s goal-scoring when the latter left this summer and Quinn Sullivan spent the year looking like an Alejandro Bedoya regen.

But they missed the playoffs. Their underlying numbers weren’t just playoff good, it was among the top-eight in the league. How did they miss the playoffs?

It’s a variation of the same question the club has been pondering all year, unable to fully recover from a slow start.

This offseason is the most interesting for this club in years. There was another overture for head coach Jim Curtin, but once again, the club legend decided to stay.

Atlanta United wanted to interview Curtin for their coaching vacancy, but the Union boss declined that interest, sources tell GIVEMESPORT.

Will there be big changes or tweaks? What kind of budget will ownership give sporting director Ernst Tanner, one of the best front office executives in the league?

State of the Roster

Head coach: Jim Curtin

Chief Soccer Officer: Ernst Tanner

The Good

Was this a good team that was generally unlucky? Or a bad team that had a nice summer run? My view is the former, but arguments for either are fair.

Tai Baribo exploded with 16 goals in 1,900 minutes this season. Both by eye-test and underlying numbers, he looks the real deal. His non-penalty xG was in the 94th percentile among MLS forwards. He was also an asset against the ball, a non-negotiable quality for any Union forward.

Daniel Gazdag can be enigmatic, but you can’t argue with 17 goals (with a much healthier split of 13 goals from open play and four from the penalty spot than last year, which was just three from open play and 11 from the spot).

Kai Wagner remained one of the best left backs in MLS in 2024, a unique chance creating hub and set piece specialist crucial to the attack, unlike any true fullback in the league outside of Jordi Alba.

Then there’s Andre Blake, who was very good when available once again. He played out of his mind during their run to the Leagues Cup semifinal.

As is standard, the Union got a huge boost from the academy this year. Jack McGlynn, Nathan Harriel and Sullivan were three reliable, productive starters. That is the cheat code in the salary-caped MLS — getting performances like that from off-budget players — but also integral to the Union, who won’t be outspending many teams on transfer fees or salaries.

Sullivan was awesome this year, a true breakout for a talented young player. McGlynn and Harriel had already broken into the XI last year and each built on that.

The Bad

Just as much as missing Blake for more than half the season, the reason the Union failed to reach the playoffs was fumbling leads. Philadelphia dropped a league-worst 27 points from winning positions. If they were even below league average, they would finish comfortably over the playoff line.

That number is up from 12 (tied for 15th-most in MLS) last year. The good news is this stat isn’t reliably repeatable: There are high levels of variance for most teams. Still, it’s an issue the club needs to diagnose and cure to ensure regression to the mean in 2025. What was the root cause? Fitness? Experience? Not killing a game off with another goal? Or just general variance?

Philly struggled a lot without Blake. Even if he played 23 games instead of 13, they make the playoffs. Where might they be if he played all 34?

I have no clue what happened to Jakob Glesnes and Jack Elliott this year. Both are in-prime and typically elite in this league. Conventional wisdom would suggest to run it back and assume this is an anomaly, but it’d be wise to bring in another senior center back as cover/insurance.

In the attack, for all the good Gazdag does, he’s not a chance creator. He was in the 16th percentile among MLS attacking midfielders/wingers in assists and 38th in expected assists. This team’s ethos is to create chances via the press, and Gazdag thrives there in the open space, but a team with Gazdag at the No. 10 needs a handful of secondary creators to pick up that burden.

Flexibility

The Union have a ton of top-end flexibility, but they never maximize their discretionary spend. They could add one DP and three U-22 initiative players, but what about the ownership’s spending habits would lead to that outcome? Maybe not all four slots, but sources tell GIVEMESPORT ownership is prepared to sanction a sizeable transfer fee to bring in young talent, likely via the U-22 initiative.

A low-key huge story had been that Sullivan was set to enter the final year of his contract, but the club announced Wednesday that he signed a new long-term contract. The club did not note that it was a U-22 initiative slot, which preserves further offseason flexibility.

Leon Flach is out of contract this winter, another big story for this team. He’s been an unsung hero in this era. The club will try hard to keep him, sources say, but he may have his mind set on returning to Germany. He was born in Houston but raised in Germany and spent the beginning of his career there.

Summer addition Sam Adeniran is out of contract as well, but he had no goal contributions in just 340 minutes scattered across 14 appearances.

Philly hold club options for Blake, Elliott, Olivier Mbaizo and Joaquin Torres for the 2025 season, plus young players like McGlynn, Sullivan and Brandan Craig.

Offseason Priorities

This group is still more good than bad, but absolutely needs an injection of new talent, particularly at center forward and center back.

Philadelphia has been proactive with succession plans, whether they worked or not. The best example is the planning for Mark McKenzie’s departure and having the 2020 season with McKenzie, Glesnes and Elliott as the options at center back. Baribo counts this year as well.

There is no succession plan at center back right now, and they were dangerously thin at the position after Damion Lowe transferred to Saudi Arabia. Even if one of Olwethu Makhanya, Neil Pierre or Craig is ready for rotational minutes, I’d expect a center back to arrive.

In the attack, will Adeniran be back? Making a significant move to boost that unit would go a long way to improvements in 2025 as well as fan morale.

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