Seattle Sounders vs LAFC Odds and Prediction for US Open Cup Semifinal

MLS powers LAFC and the Seattle Sounders will meet for the fourth time this season when they clash in a single-elimination U.S. Open Cup semifinal on Wednesday.

The winner of this match will advance to host the final on September 25 against Sporting Kansas City, who emerged from the other semifinal against Indy Eleven. In addition to silverware, there is $300,000 in prize money and a berth to next year’s CONCACAF Champions Cup on the line.

The storylines abound in this match, with LAFC coming off a heartbreaking 3-1 loss in Sunday’s Leagues Cup final against the Columbus Crew, dropping their fourth cup final in the last 14 months. LAFC have never won the Open Cup, while the Sounders are one Open Cup trophy away from tying the all-time record for tournament titles.

​​​​​On top of all that, LAFC have won all three previous matches against Seattle in 2024, including the last two by 3-0 scorelines (July 20 and Aug. 17). And LAFC are 7W-0L-2D in the last nine matches against Seattle, with their last defeat coming in May 2021. But after an inconsistent start to 2024, the Sounders have turned it around of late, going 11W-3L-1D in all competitions since June 15. Two of those three losses, however, came to LAFC.

Wednesday’s match will add another to the list of knockout matchups that have pitted these two teams against each other, and which has only stoked this budding rivalry since LAFC launched in 2018. The knockout contests have included three MLS playoff meetings (2019, 2020, 2023) and the recent 2024 Leagues Cup quarterfinal showdown won by LAFC in Seattle.

How to Watch Seattle Sounders vs LAFC

Fans can stream the USOC semifinal for free on Apple TV

If the stakes, teams, and the players involved weren’t enough to make this match a compelling watch, the unique stadium setting only adds to the intrigue.

The match is not taking place at the Sounders’ regular MLS home of Lumen Field, which seats nearly 70,000. Instead, the Sounders are hosting the game in the intimate setting of Starfire Stadium in Tukwila, Washington, where they’ve enjoyed plenty of success in their Open Cup history. Only 5,000 fit in the venue, and they’re positioned right on top of the narrow, artificial field.

• Match: Seattle Sounders vs. LAFC (U.S. Open Cup Semifinal)
• Date: Wednesday, August 28, 2024
• Time: 10:30 p.m. EDT (7:30 p.m. PDT)
• Stadium: Starfire Stadium (Tukwila, Wash.)
• TV channel: None
• Live stream: Free stream on Apple TV (MLS Season Pass)

Even Sounders star Jordan Morris (video below) admits that the players need to “”embrace the chaos that this field brings,” and he calls the surface at Starfire “worse turf” than the artificial grass at their home stadium of Lumen Field.

Seattle and LAFC were two of just eight MLS clubs who opted to participate in the 2024 U.S. Open Cup with nine other U.S.-based clubs sending reserve teams. The other nine eligible clubs opted out, including eight due to CONCACAF Champions Cup commitments.

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC Lineups

With three matches in one week for both teams, lineup changes could be in store

Sounders manager Brian Schmetzer has opted for consistency in his starting lineup selections over recent matches and any changes would likely be related to load management for veterans like Joao Paulo and Yeimar with a road match in Minnesota last Saturday and a trip to Portland coming up this Saturday. For that reason, Danny Leyva (for Joao Paulo) and Jon Bell (for Yeimar) could be candidates to start.

The other decision to watch is Schmetzer’s pick at goalkeeper. He stuck with backup Andrew Thomas throughout Leagues Cup, and Thomas has also started every Open Cup match in 2024. Schmetzer did hint earlier this month that Thomas “might be playing in the Open Cup.” Starter Stefan Frei was in goal for last Saturday’s MLS match in Minnesota.

• Seattle Sounders Lineup Projection (4-2-3-1, left to right): Andrew Thomas (GK) — Nouhou, Jackson Ragen, Yeimar, Alex Roldan — Joao Paulo, Obed Vargas — Paul Rothrock, Albert Rusnak, Cristian Roldan — Jordan Morris
• Bench (7 from the following): Stefan Frei (GK), Jon Bell, Nathan, Josh Atencio, Danny Leyva, Reed Baker-Whiting, Dylan Teves, Pedro de la Vega, Léo Chú, Raul Ruidiaz, Danny Musovski

LAFC emerged from Sunday’s Leagues Cup final loss with reported injuries picked up by forward Olivier Giroud and defender Jesus Murillo (knee). The Colombian center back is listed as out by the club, with center back Eddie Segura likely to take his spot, while striker Kei Kamara could step in for Giroud.

It will also be interesting to see whether, given the turf at Starfire, LAFC risk playing Mateusz Bogusz and Cristian “Kike” Olivera who are the subject of transfer speculation to Celtic and Toluca, respectively. The transfer window in Scotland closes on August 30, while Mexico’s runs through Sept. 14.

Timothy Tillman, who played 27 minutes against Columbus on Sunday, could also be a candidate to start in place of Eduard Atuesta, who did not have his best game against the Crew.

• LAFC Lineup Projection (3-4-3, left to right): Hugo Lloris (GK) — Aaron Long, Maxime Chanot, Eddie Segura — Ryan Hollingshead, Eduard Atuesta, Ilie Sanchez, Sergi Palencia — Denis Bouanga, Kei Kamara, Mateusz Bogusz
• Bench (7 from the following): Thomas Hasal (GK), Omar Campos, Cristian Olivera, Timothy Tillman, Lewis O’Brien, Erik Dueñas, David Martinez, Nathan Ordaz, Olivier Giroud

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC Prediction

This could be the moment the Sounders finally turn the tide vs. LAFC

Judging by their recent head-to-head matchups, LAFC would be expected to be road favorites in this semifinal. But the Starfire Stadium field will weigh heavily in this latest showdown. Previous results can be thrown out the window.

The field is tighter than normal, the turf is not known for its quality, the crowd is on top of the players, and matches are typically chaotic. Seattle is intimately familiar with all these factors, while LAFC will be tasting them for the first time and there is sure to be a period of adjustment for the visitors. The ball will bounce differently in front of World Cup winning goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and Denis Bouanga will likely have a tough time finding space for his patented sprinting runs.

While the field will represent more adversity for an LAFC team coming back from a gut punch in a final just three days prior, Starfire is home sweet home for Seattle who, according to statistics compiled by Sounder At Heart, are 19W-1L-3D at Starfire in their MLS history. Their only loss came in a match which saw the Sounders finish with eight men due to three red cards, including one to Clint Dempsey who promptly ripped it up (video below). It’s tough to pick against Seattle here. Prediction: Seattle 2-1 LAFC

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC Odds and Betting Picks

The odds for the game project this Open Cup semifinal to be a toss-up

The betting market is not ready to pick between these two teams with both sporting identical odds to win in 90 minutes and advance to the final. Extra time and penalties would be necessary if the teams draw after 90 minutes.

The odds for the match courtesy of USA-based sportsbooks are outlined below, followed by three best bet ideas.

• Seattle Sounders to win (90 minutes): +155
• Seattle Sounders to advance to final: -110
• LAFC to win (90 minutes): +155
• LAFC to advance to final: -110
• Over/Under 2.5 goals: -118 / -106
• Both Teams to Score (Yes / No): -150 / +110
• Spread: Pick’em
• Goal Line: 2.5 total goals

Seattle Sounders to advance (or “qualify”): -110

The home-field advantage that the Sounders enjoy at Starfire is real, and in a toss-up match like this one, few would argue with giving the lean to the home team, especially with the way that both clubs enter this match.

Seattle Sounders Pick’Em (0 on Asian Spread): -108

It’s the same logic as above, but what’s attractive about this play is that if the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes, it’s a push and the bet is refunded. If LAFC win in 90 minutes, the bet loses.

Seattle Sounders Over 5.5 Team Corners (90 minutes): -110

Seattle hit six corners during the 90 minutes of regulation in both previous Open Cup matches on the narrow pitch at Starfire. Overall this season, the Sounders have reached six or more corners in 23 of 34 matches (or 67.6 percent of the time). And they also reached the mark in two of the three matches played against LAFC this year.

Corners always seem to turn into a sweat when you decide to make them an official bet, but history seems to give this one a decent shot.