The Potential of the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs

As the NFL’s first repeat champions in nearly 20 years, it’s fair to say that the Kansas City Chiefs run the league right now. Their expectations have been sky-high for five years running. Seldom have they underachieved to a troubling degree.

So, Kansas City enters 2024 with the entire world watching and a solid chunk of those spectators waiting for them to fall off. Will they reach the mountaintop again, or is this the year the Chiefs come crashing down? Let’s examine the extremes that could define this season in Chiefs Kingdom.

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The Chiefs have retained the core of a roster that has won two Super Bowls in a row.

Best Case Scenario: First Three-Peat in Super Bowl Era

The Chiefs continue to have every answer

What made the 2023 squad different from the recently dominant Chiefs teams was the defense. That unit was second in points allowed, yards allowed, and sacks. All-Pros Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie are back to ensure that doesn’t change. For the first time in this era, Kansas City’s defense isn’t merely good. They’re arguably the team’s strength.

Which is insane to think about when staring down the Chiefs offense. Head coach Andy Reid is a mastermind. Tight end Travis Kelce is five years away from Canton whenever he retires. QB Patrick Mahomes is already arguably an all-time great and not even 30 yet.

They’re operating behind a line that gave up the second-fewest sacks in 2023. RB Isaiah Pacheco took advantage of the guys up front, racking up the 10th-most rushing yards per game last season. The lone hole in this roster was at WR, although KC still managed a seventh straight season with a top-10 passing total.

Bringing in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy will add speed that has been missing from the WR spot since Tyreek Hill left. Kansas City’s offense will return to the top-five scoring outfit it was in the years preceding 2023.

Domination on both sides of the ball will earn the Chiefs a ninth AFC West crown in a row. Yet again, Kansas City will earn at least one home game in the postseason, if not the conference’s top spot. As last season showed, it doesn’t matter where they play in January.

As is destined, Mahomes will rip out the Buffalo Bills’ heart in the divisional round. Whoever stands in the way afterward will feel close yet finish far from beating the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Tom Brady isn’t around to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

Get ready for another parade. Nothing is capable of slowing down this Kansas City team.

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Worst Case Scenario: The Castle Crumbles and Two Major Retirements Follow

Offseason losses bleed into regular season games

Every championship winner has their roster poached. Kansas City is no different, as CB L’Jarius Sneed, OT Donovan Smith, and LB Willie Gay Jr. are among the key pieces who have moved on. There weren’t many new faces brought in to make up for them.

Losing two defensive starters, especially productive veterans, will cause the defense to regress. The rest of the DBs will miss Sneed’s presence in the secondary. Gay Jr. is also strong in pass coverage and led the defense in fumble recoveries last season.

Speaking of turnovers, Kansas City finished with a -11 differential (28th) in 2023. The defense only came away with 17 takeaways, which was tied for 27th. Their offense gave the ball away 28 times.

Brown and Worthy don’t have steady enough hands to make a difference through the air. Foes adjust to Pacheco’s running style, so the ground game isn’t respectable anymore. Mahomes, coming off his worst year with interceptions, will continue to hand opponents extra possessions. The defense’s regression meeting another mediocre offense won’t end as well.

The Las Vegas Raiders have a full season under head coach Antonio Pierce in 2024 and play like the team that closed 2023 strong, including a road win over the Chiefs. Now led by Jim Harbaugh, the Los Angeles Chargers realize their full potential and have an impressive season. The Denver Broncos finally beat Kansas City last season and stole another one from their rivals this year.

In 2024, the Chiefs won’t win their AFC West games with their eyes closed, as the competition is tough. The Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and San Francisco 49ers all avenge postseason losses from last winter. Tough matchups against the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals don’t end well. The Chiefs have eight losses between a 3-3 division record and those five games.

At 9-8, they finish third in the division and miss the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. Reid hangs it up, shifting his focus to family and State Farm commercials. Kelce follows suit, citing business ventures with his brother and more opportunities to perform at Taylor Swift concerts as the primary reasons. 2024 marks the end of a run in Chiefs Kingdom.

Verdict: Strong Season Ends Short of AFC Title

Mahomes may miss the AFC Championship game for the first time in his career

Saying that a team won’t win their conference isn’t typically a bold call. People wouldn’t bat an eye if this was about 30 other teams in the league. However, penciling Kansas City into late January has saved a lot of headaches the past five years.

However, making it to the conference title game, let alone winning, is extremely difficult. Those extended seasons pay off but also take a toll over time. The Chiefs have played in four of the past five Super Bowls but not in three straight. Only three teams in NFL history have ever earned three consecutive Super Bowl trips.

This year won’t add a team to the list. Kansas City will give the rest of the AFC hell all season long. Yet, someone, whether it’s the Ravens, Bills, Bengals, or Texans, will rise to the occasion. A new champion will be crowned in New Orleans.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise.

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